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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 18 Dec 2021

      3) Both may (I suspect do, at least for England) include those admitted for non-COVID causes and thus make hospitalization rates look higher (because Omicron is contagious enough that many people in hospital have it unrelated to their admission)

      7 replies 14 retweets 122 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 18 Dec 2021

      Including nonCOVID admissions who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 would make severity among hospitalized look lower as suggested by this account from SA https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features … .

      1 reply 18 retweets 96 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 18 Dec 2021

      Bottom line we are far from having evidence that severity is low enough to make this not a worry at the societal level, especially with already-stretched hospitals. Evidence that vaccines, especially when boosted, offer protection against severe disease is more consistent.

      11 replies 119 retweets 420 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 18 Dec 2021

      Marc Lipsitch Retweeted

      Already learning from the responses, thank you. Two sets of data suggesting modest contribution of "incidental" SARS-CoV-2 diagnoses among hospitalizations, one in Tshwane, Gauteng, SA https://twitter.com/enjoyingthewind/status/1472329401585045518?s=20 …

      Marc Lipsitch added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      2 replies 15 retweets 89 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 18 Dec 2021

      Marc Lipsitch Retweeted Criostal Ó Conghaile

      And one in London, UKhttps://twitter.com/cripipper21/status/1472328298025869314?s=20 …

      Marc Lipsitch added,

      Criostal Ó Conghaile @cripipper21
      Replying to @mlipsitch
      https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1471900266811244547 …
      2 replies 9 retweets 52 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 18 Dec 2021

      Marc Lipsitch Retweeted Prof. Christina Pagel

      which shares this https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1471900266811244547?s=20 …. A constant proportion of hospital admissions over time that are incidental SARS-2 findings vs. admitted for COVID is indeed consistent with similar severity per infection to the past variants, as @chrischirp notes.

      Marc Lipsitch added,

      Prof. Christina PagelVerified account @chrischirp
      Hosp admissions by primary diagnosis show increase in *both* admissions for Covid and more incidental admissions (e.g. trauma or caught covid while in hospital for something else). This is consistent with no evidence that Omicron milder. Critical care already v busy. 13/18 pic.twitter.com/3lhVwG9Y4U
      Show this thread
      13 replies 22 retweets 117 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 18 Dec 2021

      This presentation from yesterday is illuminating https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=e4Y2sXkt-cw … ht to a responder whom I can't find any more, twitter fail...

      1 reply 4 retweets 42 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 18 Dec 2021

      Several lines of evidence here suggesting a lower hospitalization proportion than in previous waves, limited to first 25 days. Caveats 1) this is growing faster, so higher proportion of recent cases makes bias (missing not-yet-hospitalized) worse even when compare first 25 days

      5 replies 16 retweets 116 likes
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    9. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 18 Dec 2021

      2) the proportion vaccinated is going up, as is the proportion previously infected, so a more immune population. So hard to compare but declining in-hospital severity measures here as in Discovery Health are hopeful signs.

      7 replies 15 retweets 121 likes
      Show this thread
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Dec 2021
      Replying to @mlipsitch

      I think given its age structure and high seropositivity from prior outbreak+infection, South Africa could only give us the signal to *really* worry, but not to relax. Asymmetrical in its ability to inform us. Denmark and UK, similar age pyramid but healthier and more vaccinated.+

      8 replies 3 retweets 26 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @mlipsitch

      I think we have little idea what Omicron might mean for the yet-to-be vaccinated population of Vietnam or Hong Kong, or many countries in Africa without prior outbreaks. Also not clear on breakthrough outcomes for unboosted elderly, imo—too little time yet. Seems wise to act.

      3:26 PM - 18 Dec 2021
      • 1 Retweet
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      • Tommy Cleary Andy Flach 🌵 ✡️🆘 Ban Assault Weapons Dickson Steven J. Frisch Stephen Bank pocketprole Escape Velocity... sssh I 'neeked out again joy meads 👻👻👻
      2 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @mlipsitch

          (Also: 65+ in SA is not only smaller proportion of the population, likely healthier compared to same-age peers here—survival bias, frankly. Don’t think we have strong signal about that age group yet, plus they need antibodies more than younger people away from immunosenescence.)

          1 reply 2 retweets 12 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @mlipsitch

          All this was easier to figure out, when world was more uniform, everyone immunonaive. Now with such varying levels of prior infection and/or vaccination, not easy to disentangle all this from looking elsewhere, especially at the speed with which it is spreading…

          1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Steven J. Frisch‏ @stevenjfrisch 18 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @mlipsitch

          I'm a bit confused by your reference to Vietnam as the country has executed a remarkably efficient immunization program in recent months, and has now immunized 70.4% of the total population.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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