2) If SA is correct, the real reduction in severity is at the highest-severity end, which is not considered in the Imperial report (i.e. ICU)
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I think we have little idea what Omicron might mean for the yet-to-be vaccinated population of Vietnam or Hong Kong, or many countries in Africa without prior outbreaks. Also not clear on breakthrough outcomes for unboosted elderly, imo—too little time yet. Seems wise to act.
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(Also: 65+ in SA is not only smaller proportion of the population, likely healthier compared to same-age peers here—survival bias, frankly. Don’t think we have strong signal about that age group yet, plus they need antibodies more than younger people away from immunosenescence.)
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agree re age, though they have had numerous admissions in older age groups. Re seropositivity, less sure; we have high seropositivity too though more from vaccines
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High seropositivity by natural immunity would be so different from high seropositivity by vaccines, in order of not being able to completely trust the comparison with SA. To what extent and why?
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Controlling for age, still reassuring.https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1471749391585214465?t=AQuD7ARFZlce_bieIsoCcA&s=19 …
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We are not highly serpositive from prior surges?
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In may 2021 , Based on testing of more than 1.4 million blood donations, researchers estimated that the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence from infection or vaccination among Americans aged 16 years or older was 83% in May, BEFORE the delta variant surge.
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Source?
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Depends on the vaccination profile of the population you are examining...& the size of the convalescent cohort?https://twitter.com/veeslerlab/status/1470880290130120707 …
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