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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Ramin Farzaneh-Far MD‏ @rfsquared 15 Dec 2021

      This needs urgent clarification. Assuming 1:1 randomization this suggests ~1/39 16-17 year olds randomized to booster developed myocarditis. We’ve always said clinical trials too small to detect myocarditis but looks like that’s no longer the case with boosters in the young.pic.twitter.com/Yq6tj5tc86

      27 replies 252 retweets 524 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2021
      Replying to @rfsquared

      You’re giving a public point estimate from a sample of 78? And one incident among the 39? Like how? The confidence interval on that is big enough to string together a few aircraft carriers, and have room to spare.

      17 replies 4 retweets 79 likes
    3. Walid Gellad, MD MPH‏Verified account @walidgellad 15 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @rfsquared

      I think you set aside the point estimate. If you see one case among the 20 boys who got vaccinated, and it's a known adverse event that you're worried about, it raises enormous flags. Then you decide if the urgency of the booster in this age group is enough to go forward.

      1 reply 0 retweets 72 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2021
      Replying to @walidgellad @rfsquared

      I wouldn't prioritize this group for a booster right now under many other considerations, but one in thirty-nine is not a number that makes sense as things stand. We should get better estimates from 19-25 groups soon, I guess.

      4 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. Walid Gellad, MD MPH‏Verified account @walidgellad 15 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @rfsquared

      Walid Gellad, MD MPH Retweeted Walid Gellad, MD MPH

      assuming 50/50 males/female, this is 20 boys who got the booster. We know the risk is higher in boys, so would not say 1 in 39. Agree we will know more soon. Question is what do we do now.https://twitter.com/walidgellad/status/1466592936045514775?s=20 …

      Walid Gellad, MD MPH added,

      Walid Gellad, MD MPHVerified account @walidgellad
      The case for boosting those over 40 and 50 is clear, give higher likelihood of benefits and lower risk of side effects. The case for boosting 16-17 years olds better be air tight given they are the highest risk group for side effects.
      Show this thread
      2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2021
      Replying to @walidgellad @rfsquared

      I think the key comparator for the first/second shot has always been the myocarditis risk from *infection* with this virus. (Assuming you've seen this, out yesterday). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01630-0 …)pic.twitter.com/oGI3UADxe9

      4 replies 3 retweets 6 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @walidgellad @rfsquared

      On boosters, I wouldn't not prioritize this group under many other considerations but worth watching if UK which has good surveillance indicates a significant uptick in myocarditis even from breakthrough Omicron infections (no idea) or we get red flags from the 18-29 boosters.

      9:54 AM - 15 Dec 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Beth Wilensky‏ @bethwilensky 15 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @walidgellad @rfsquared

          As the parent of a 15YO boy (who got 2 Pfizer doses), this is the info I want. What is his risk of myocarditis from a booster, and what is his risk of myocarditis from a breakthrough infection. (IOW: is risk of myocarditis from breakthrough the same as from an unvaxed infection?)

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Beth Wilensky‏ @bethwilensky 15 Dec 2021
          Replying to @bethwilensky @zeynep and

          And I know the answer right now is "We don't know yet." But this is the info I'll want when it comes time to make a decision. We are strongly pro-vax, and this is the first thing that has given me any pause.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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