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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Ramin Farzaneh-Far MD‏ @rfsquared 15 Dec 2021

      This needs urgent clarification. Assuming 1:1 randomization this suggests ~1/39 16-17 year olds randomized to booster developed myocarditis. We’ve always said clinical trials too small to detect myocarditis but looks like that’s no longer the case with boosters in the young.pic.twitter.com/Yq6tj5tc86

      27 replies 252 retweets 524 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2021
      Replying to @rfsquared

      You’re giving a public point estimate from a sample of 78? And one incident among the 39? Like how? The confidence interval on that is big enough to string together a few aircraft carriers, and have room to spare.

      17 replies 4 retweets 79 likes
    3. Walid Gellad, MD MPH‏Verified account @walidgellad 15 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @rfsquared

      I think you set aside the point estimate. If you see one case among the 20 boys who got vaccinated, and it's a known adverse event that you're worried about, it raises enormous flags. Then you decide if the urgency of the booster in this age group is enough to go forward.

      1 reply 0 retweets 72 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2021
      Replying to @walidgellad @rfsquared

      I wouldn't prioritize this group for a booster right now under many other considerations, but one in thirty-nine is not a number that makes sense as things stand. We should get better estimates from 19-25 groups soon, I guess.

      9:37 AM - 15 Dec 2021
      • 4 Likes
      • Anna Szekely Rich Waters Alexander Leo Dugan Dr Ed
      4 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Walid Gellad, MD MPH‏Verified account @walidgellad 15 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @rfsquared

          Walid Gellad, MD MPH Retweeted Walid Gellad, MD MPH

          assuming 50/50 males/female, this is 20 boys who got the booster. We know the risk is higher in boys, so would not say 1 in 39. Agree we will know more soon. Question is what do we do now.https://twitter.com/walidgellad/status/1466592936045514775?s=20 …

          Walid Gellad, MD MPH added,

          Walid Gellad, MD MPHVerified account @walidgellad
          The case for boosting those over 40 and 50 is clear, give higher likelihood of benefits and lower risk of side effects. The case for boosting 16-17 years olds better be air tight given they are the highest risk group for side effects.
          Show this thread
          2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2021
          Replying to @walidgellad @rfsquared

          I think the key comparator for the first/second shot has always been the myocarditis risk from *infection* with this virus. (Assuming you've seen this, out yesterday). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01630-0 …)pic.twitter.com/oGI3UADxe9

          4 replies 3 retweets 6 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Ramin Farzaneh-Far MD‏ @rfsquared 15 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @walidgellad

          That number is what was observed in the clinical trial. It is what it is and it’s a huge red flag to see a case of a safety problem *you’re ALREADY worried about in that age and sex* occur in such a small sample. No one is saying the true rate is 1/39 if 8 billion are boosted.

          1 reply 4 retweets 37 likes
        3. Jean Rees‏ @JeanRees10 15 Dec 2021
          Replying to @rfsquared @zeynep @walidgellad

          Jean Rees Retweeted Jean Rees

          And we have data, that more kids 15-17 yo died from C19 after the vax was available. Question is did vaxxing into Delta make them more susceptible during the 1st dose 11 day "priming" phase? 3x more deaths in August vs. January. @anish_kokahttps://twitter.com/JeanRees10/status/1469111437301846020 …

          Jean Rees added,

          Jean Rees @JeanRees10
          Something strange happened, after the 💉was available, C19 deaths in 15-17 yos were ⬆️ than any other time of the pandemic 1/21 - 19 2/21 - 7 3/21 - 9 4/21 - 3 5/21 - 7 6/21 - 6 7/21 - 6 8/21 - 63 9/21 - 30 10/21 - 18 11/21 - 10 MIS-C ran w/the curve, C19 deaths didn't pic.twitter.com/YeK9bqM6wx
          Show this thread
          1 reply 2 retweets 10 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Peter Pham‏Verified account @peterpham 15 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @walidgellad @rfsquared

          Peter Pham Retweeted Peter Pham

          are you going to cover this in @TheAtlantic or @nytimes ?https://twitter.com/peterpham/status/1471149433400135684?s=20 …

          Peter Pham added,

          Peter PhamVerified account @peterpham
          Definitive data from Oxford UK. Showing higher incidents of myocarditis in the second shot of moderna than COVID itself. How can we be mandating this for kids to go to school? https://youtu.be/ZCXqxQHg7kk 
          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. From Chicago‏ @FromChicagoland 15 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @walidgellad @rfsquared

          It’s important because colleges are already mandating booster shots for undergraduates, typically ages 18-22.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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