… having a fever on December 16.
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Replying to @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey
As I say in the thread, I appreciate the effort of everyone, but I don't think the first revealed-to-us cases can make that much progress *either way* without some new data, given how China has been stonewalling, and how much of a mess even the WHO list has been the whole time.
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I mean, the Wuhan CDC is right next to market with an extensive bat?/virus collection effort itself, and there are so many open questions about it. Alternatively, the market could be the source and have cryptic transmission all the way to unconnected sources, before us noticing.
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no, the wuhan cdc is not right next to huanan
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there is a branch office relatively nearby, but the main cdc campus (where research would likely be performed) is kilometers away
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Not only is it very near—a few hundred yards from the market depending on map—the alleged move date of December 2nd has no details or confirmation. I checked and asked, the team was told this date. (But there's a bit more, next tweet). https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-bats-china-wuhan/2021/06/02/772ef984-beb2-11eb-922a-c40c9774bc48_story.html …pic.twitter.com/QtIHxJ0liO
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Their archived web pages and some of the pre-December reporting about this move has a bunch of contradictions—the stuff that requires actual investigative journalism. And once again, this highlights how little we know of anything because even simple questions aren't answered.
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Folks are trying to figure out details of the first case we are told about by diving into children's dental records. The WHO team member, Dr. Embarek, said that they were given no info about Mr. Chen's contacts or details... Obviously Chinese scientists aren't this incompetent.+
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As I say upthread, without a real investigation, whether or not *known* case number one is or isn't connected to the market isn't dispositive either way—market source, cryptic transmission to non-connected person is possible. Market as later SSE also possible and one more thing.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Ben Cowling
Very qualified people with a lot of deep knowledge around the epi of this, and who really have done a lot of work on this estimate around a hundred November cases to be plausible or likely—you can see his discussion and papers, too.https://twitter.com/bencowling88/status/1470892299093950467 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Ben CowlingVerified account @bencowling88This estimate of 9 is hard to believe, here we estimated perhaps 100 cases by 1 Dec but there could potentially be a lot of stochasticity in early epidemic, perhaps including a superspreading event in the seafood zone of the market? https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30089-X/fulltext … https://twitter.com/MichaelWorobey/status/1470865085291581441 …Show this thread1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
My, yes, unsatisfying position is there is a too much hope on what one can conclude from data that is clearly incomplete, incoherent & deliberately censored—again, Chinese scientists aren't incompetent. Of course more research was done. But the simplest questions aren't answered.
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