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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Zhihua Chen‏ @zhihuachen 14 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zhihuachen @zeynep @MichaelWorobey

      … Unlike changes in the other direction in some other cases, this change was not explained in the WHO report. Worobey’s error was that he thought the change was caused by a mistaken reading of a December 9, 2019 medical record describing a fever - Worobey mistakenly thought …

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    2. Zhihua Chen‏ @zhihuachen 14 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zhihuachen @zeynep @MichaelWorobey

      … the dental procedure attached to the record was the accountant’s, no, it was from the accountant’s kid. But even there there is a big twist! Turns out the fever medical report was likely the kid’s as well. So in the end what we have now is on one hand this new statement …

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Zhihua Chen‏ @zhihuachen 14 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zhihuachen @zeynep @MichaelWorobey

      … coming from Liang Wannian that the accountant had some non-fever symptoms on December 8 and that they think the symptom had to do with his eventual confirmed Covid, and on the other hand, as described earlier, the various contemporaneous records that the accountant started …

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. Zhihua Chen‏ @zhihuachen 14 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zhihuachen @zeynep @MichaelWorobey

      … having a fever on December 16.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 14 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey

      As I say in the thread, I appreciate the effort of everyone, but I don't think the first revealed-to-us cases can make that much progress *either way* without some new data, given how China has been stonewalling, and how much of a mess even the WHO list has been the whole time.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 14 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey

      I mean, the Wuhan CDC is right next to market with an extensive bat?/virus collection effort itself, and there are so many open questions about it. Alternatively, the market could be the source and have cryptic transmission all the way to unconnected sources, before us noticing.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. halvorz ¯\_(ツ)_/¯‏ @halvorz 15 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey

      no, the wuhan cdc is not right next to huanan

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    8. halvorz ¯\_(ツ)_/¯‏ @halvorz 15 Dec 2021
      Replying to @halvorz @zeynep and

      there is a branch office relatively nearby, but the main cdc campus (where research would likely be performed) is kilometers away

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2021
      Replying to @halvorz @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey

      Not only is it very near—a few hundred yards from the market depending on map—the alleged move date of December 2nd has no details or confirmation. I checked and asked, the team was told this date. (But there's a bit more, next tweet). https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-bats-china-wuhan/2021/06/02/772ef984-beb2-11eb-922a-c40c9774bc48_story.html …pic.twitter.com/QtIHxJ0liO

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @halvorz and

      Their archived web pages and some of the pre-December reporting about this move has a bunch of contradictions—the stuff that requires actual investigative journalism. And once again, this highlights how little we know of anything because even simple questions aren't answered.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @halvorz and

      Folks are trying to figure out details of the first case we are told about by diving into children's dental records. The WHO team member, Dr. Embarek, said that they were given no info about Mr. Chen's contacts or details... Obviously Chinese scientists aren't this incompetent.+

      4:49 AM - 15 Dec 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @halvorz and

          As I say upthread, without a real investigation, whether or not *known* case number one is or isn't connected to the market isn't dispositive either way—market source, cryptic transmission to non-connected person is possible. Market as later SSE also possible and one more thing.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @halvorz and

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Ben Cowling

          Very qualified people with a lot of deep knowledge around the epi of this, and who really have done a lot of work on this estimate around a hundred November cases to be plausible or likely—you can see his discussion and papers, too.https://twitter.com/bencowling88/status/1470892299093950467 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Ben CowlingVerified account @bencowling88
          This estimate of 9 is hard to believe, here we estimated perhaps 100 cases by 1 Dec but there could potentially be a lot of stochasticity in early epidemic, perhaps including a superspreading event in the seafood zone of the market? https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30089-X/fulltext … https://twitter.com/MichaelWorobey/status/1470865085291581441 …
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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