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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      People keep assuming almost everyone in the world is seropositive (vaccination or infection). That is just not true: the remaining numbers are still large enough. Plus, as with other diseases, elderly have weaker response plus there is antigenic evolution.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1469313745839140866 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      Replying to @asymmetricinfo
      Yes, and in large numbers and in many places. As @dylanhmorris keeps saying, people keep underestimating the seronegative population. When you run the math, it is actually not at all small. Absolutely large enough to stress health-care, at a minimum.
      5 replies 16 retweets 99 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

      Even things we consider mild (common colds) cause fatal outbreaks in nursing homes. And other respiratory diseases besides flu do cause significant burden. Generally mild for younger populations does not equal "does not matter." We've now added one more. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33501772/ pic.twitter.com/ZtelA5Etad

      2 replies 18 retweets 85 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

      So essentially, "most vaccinated/infected people will experience a milder course" can be true without the virus being intrinsically milder, and the threat can change with age, immunocompetence and virus evolution. This is fairly mundane, by the way.

      1 reply 16 retweets 119 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

      Thus, a mild plea for being specific, rather than the "it's over" vs "it will never be over" wars. Really appreciate the essay because of that. Explaining things in a bit of detail and treating the public like adults seems much more productive. *ducks*

      3 replies 11 retweets 126 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

      Also: even if Omicron cases in vaccinated/infected people are overwhelmingly mild🤞but symptomatic, a huge wave can still be a strain. If a tiny percent of those are severe that can add up quickly if the wave is big enough. Remember it is in *addition* to other seasonal viruses.

      8 replies 6 retweets 81 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

      Plus, US already has a Delta wave, thousand+ deaths daily, lowish and uneven rates of vaccination and healthcare system is stressed. Even the mildest Omicron wave, if big enough, will cause strain because it is *in addition.* Yes, everybody is tired, but the virus doesn't care.

      8 replies 12 retweets 85 likes
      Show this thread
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Peter Hershberg

      Not just approval—mass production. The real question usually isn't when approval comes, but how much of it is available then. Also: should go to countries with outbreaks, not be hoarded by wealthy ones without. (Pfizer's antiviral is variant independent).https://twitter.com/hershberg/status/1469379812217307143 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Peter Hershberg @hershberg
      Replying to @zeynep
      Why is approval of Pfizer’s antiviral pill taking so long? Seems like that would go a long way towards easing stress on the healthcare system.
      5 replies 10 retweets 59 likes
      Show this thread
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

      Also masks, more cautious behavior, etc. Look at pediatric flu deaths for the past ~four years in the US, for example. Very striking—virtually disappeared last year. Still, it's early and we don't fully understand some of this. Counting on it seems unwise. https://twitter.com/rak3re/status/1469380281153081344 …pic.twitter.com/Jyvm7W9dck

      2 replies 16 retweets 75 likes
      Show this thread
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Dec 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Shabir Madhi

      Adding useful thread by South African scientist. Need another week or two for more confidence, but shaping up so far, as many said, as antibody evasion, with previously infected/vaccinated largely protected from severity subject to age (elderly vulnerable), immunocompetence etc.https://twitter.com/ShabirMadh/status/1469391691035648005 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Shabir Madhi @ShabirMadh
      6. Attenuation of clinical course of illness. Likely explanation is the 73% of population in Gauteng with previous infection and/or vaccine induced underpinning T cell immunity, since omicron largely antibody evasive. Hospitalisation for severe Covid mainly in unvacccinated
      Show this thread
      2 replies 19 retweets 50 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Matt Kuehnert‏ @drkuehnert 11 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      Very useful data. However hard to attribute attenuation of clinical illness to immunity when delta is causing severe illness and omicron not. Also different manifestations in children. Something else is going on.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Dec 2021
      Replying to @drkuehnert

      What might it be? The Delta wave in SA had largely receded before Omicron rose, so we did not really get co-circulation. Not sure we have head-to-head comparison of severity in seronegatives yet, either.

      8:43 AM - 11 Dec 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Matt Kuehnert‏ @drkuehnert 11 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Omicron strain may be less virulent than delta, completely independent of transmissibility. Spreading fast so we won't have to wait long for the data.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Matt Kuehnert‏ @drkuehnert 11 Dec 2021
          Replying to @drkuehnert @zeynep

          Most interesting question is what cross reactive immunity omicron infection gives against other variants? Although yes, omicron may cause some morbidity, compared with delta it could be akin to a live attenuated vaccine booster for the already vaccinated or infected.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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