For Omicron: for all we know, if that were the version we faced first in 2020, it would cause just as severe and maybe even worse disease. Or not! Unclear. We don't know yet because we haven't yet seen reports of it impact on completely unvaccinated/uninfected populations.
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But it's not winter 2020! We have vaccines, antivirals, rapid tests, and a greater understanding of its airborne transmission. A lot more tools to dampen its spread, and also to make sure people encounter it with as robust an immune response as possible: vaccines, boosters...
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
People keep assuming almost everyone in the world is seropositive (vaccination or infection). That is just not true: the remaining numbers are still large enough. Plus, as with other diseases, elderly have weaker response plus there is antigenic evolution.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1469313745839140866 …
zeynep tufekci added,
zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynepReplying to @asymmetricinfoYes, and in large numbers and in many places. As@dylanhmorris keeps saying, people keep underestimating the seronegative population. When you run the math, it is actually not at all small. Absolutely large enough to stress health-care, at a minimum.5 replies 16 retweets 99 likesShow this thread -
Even things we consider mild (common colds) cause fatal outbreaks in nursing homes. And other respiratory diseases besides flu do cause significant burden. Generally mild for younger populations does not equal "does not matter." We've now added one more. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33501772/ pic.twitter.com/ZtelA5Etad
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So essentially, "most vaccinated/infected people will experience a milder course" can be true without the virus being intrinsically milder, and the threat can change with age, immunocompetence and virus evolution. This is fairly mundane, by the way.
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Thus, a mild plea for being specific, rather than the "it's over" vs "it will never be over" wars. Really appreciate the essay because of that. Explaining things in a bit of detail and treating the public like adults seems much more productive. *ducks*
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Also: even if Omicron cases in vaccinated/infected people are overwhelmingly mild
but symptomatic, a huge wave can still be a strain. If a tiny percent of those are severe that can add up quickly if the wave is big enough. Remember it is in *addition* to other seasonal viruses.8 replies 6 retweets 81 likesShow this thread -
Plus, US already has a Delta wave, thousand+ deaths daily, lowish and uneven rates of vaccination and healthcare system is stressed. Even the mildest Omicron wave, if big enough, will cause strain because it is *in addition.* Yes, everybody is tired, but the virus doesn't care.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Peter Hershberg
Not just approval—mass production. The real question usually isn't when approval comes, but how much of it is available then. Also: should go to countries with outbreaks, not be hoarded by wealthy ones without. (Pfizer's antiviral is variant independent).https://twitter.com/hershberg/status/1469379812217307143 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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