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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

      Great essay by @andrewpekosz on "mildness". Again: viruses don't have to evolve to be less intrinsically virulent: selection is on transmission. However, as we gain immunity, we experience milder disease on average—but age & virus evolution play a role. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/opinion/covid-evolve-milder.html …pic.twitter.com/2OYL4bf5CB

      12 replies 132 retweets 418 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

      That's also why "worry about the flu" instead was such a wrong reaction in winter of 2020—a novel virus released into a population with no prior immunity is a *huge* threat. With time—vaccination and infection—the nature of that threat changes. (No, doesn't get to zero: changes).

      2 replies 5 retweets 107 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

      For Omicron: for all we know, if that were the version we faced first in 2020, it would cause just as severe and maybe even worse disease. Or not! Unclear. We don't know yet because we haven't yet seen reports of it impact on completely unvaccinated/uninfected populations.

      3 replies 10 retweets 109 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

      But it's not winter 2020! We have vaccines, antivirals, rapid tests, and a greater understanding of its airborne transmission. A lot more tools to dampen its spread, and also to make sure people encounter it with as robust an immune response as possible: vaccines, boosters...

      6 replies 10 retweets 102 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      People keep assuming almost everyone in the world is seropositive (vaccination or infection). That is just not true: the remaining numbers are still large enough. Plus, as with other diseases, elderly have weaker response plus there is antigenic evolution.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1469313745839140866 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      Replying to @asymmetricinfo
      Yes, and in large numbers and in many places. As @dylanhmorris keeps saying, people keep underestimating the seronegative population. When you run the math, it is actually not at all small. Absolutely large enough to stress health-care, at a minimum.
      5 replies 16 retweets 99 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

      Even things we consider mild (common colds) cause fatal outbreaks in nursing homes. And other respiratory diseases besides flu do cause significant burden. Generally mild for younger populations does not equal "does not matter." We've now added one more. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33501772/ pic.twitter.com/ZtelA5Etad

      6:38 AM - 10 Dec 2021
      • 18 Retweets
      • 85 Likes
      • danfnz Duncan Armstrong Brice Pullan Lizet Kruyff hi Torb 🦋 Guy Longworth Camilla Holm Soelseth Jefrir
      2 replies 18 retweets 85 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

          So essentially, "most vaccinated/infected people will experience a milder course" can be true without the virus being intrinsically milder, and the threat can change with age, immunocompetence and virus evolution. This is fairly mundane, by the way.

          1 reply 16 retweets 119 likes
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        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

          Thus, a mild plea for being specific, rather than the "it's over" vs "it will never be over" wars. Really appreciate the essay because of that. Explaining things in a bit of detail and treating the public like adults seems much more productive. *ducks*

          3 replies 11 retweets 126 likes
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        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

          Also: even if Omicron cases in vaccinated/infected people are overwhelmingly mild🤞but symptomatic, a huge wave can still be a strain. If a tiny percent of those are severe that can add up quickly if the wave is big enough. Remember it is in *addition* to other seasonal viruses.

          8 replies 6 retweets 81 likes
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        5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

          Plus, US already has a Delta wave, thousand+ deaths daily, lowish and uneven rates of vaccination and healthcare system is stressed. Even the mildest Omicron wave, if big enough, will cause strain because it is *in addition.* Yes, everybody is tired, but the virus doesn't care.

          8 replies 12 retweets 85 likes
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        6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Peter Hershberg

          Not just approval—mass production. The real question usually isn't when approval comes, but how much of it is available then. Also: should go to countries with outbreaks, not be hoarded by wealthy ones without. (Pfizer's antiviral is variant independent).https://twitter.com/hershberg/status/1469379812217307143 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Peter Hershberg @hershberg
          Replying to @zeynep
          Why is approval of Pfizer’s antiviral pill taking so long? Seems like that would go a long way towards easing stress on the healthcare system.
          5 replies 10 retweets 59 likes
          Show this thread
        7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

          Also masks, more cautious behavior, etc. Look at pediatric flu deaths for the past ~four years in the US, for example. Very striking—virtually disappeared last year. Still, it's early and we don't fully understand some of this. Counting on it seems unwise. https://twitter.com/rak3re/status/1469380281153081344 …pic.twitter.com/Jyvm7W9dck

          2 replies 16 retweets 75 likes
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        8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Dec 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Shabir Madhi

          Adding useful thread by South African scientist. Need another week or two for more confidence, but shaping up so far, as many said, as antibody evasion, with previously infected/vaccinated largely protected from severity subject to age (elderly vulnerable), immunocompetence etc.https://twitter.com/ShabirMadh/status/1469391691035648005 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Shabir Madhi @ShabirMadh
          6. Attenuation of clinical course of illness. Likely explanation is the 73% of population in Gauteng with previous infection and/or vaccine induced underpinning T cell immunity, since omicron largely antibody evasive. Hospitalisation for severe Covid mainly in unvacccinated
          Show this thread
          2 replies 19 retweets 50 likes
          Show this thread
        9. End of conversation
        1. Maggymaggy5000‏ @maggymaggy5000 10 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          But why did we not lock up young people before 2020, with that logic?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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