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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

    Great essay by @andrewpekosz on "mildness". Again: viruses don't have to evolve to be less intrinsically virulent: selection is on transmission. However, as we gain immunity, we experience milder disease on average—but age & virus evolution play a role. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/opinion/covid-evolve-milder.html …pic.twitter.com/2OYL4bf5CB

    6:22 AM - 10 Dec 2021
    • 132 Retweets
    • 418 Likes
    • immobile panda Tiger Lily of the Valley e̶v̸e̸r̵y̶t̴h̶i̶n̸g̶'̶s̵ ̸f̸i̶n̶e̴ 😷 (((Stuart W))) 😷 מחסלים את הקורונה danfnz Carrie Clyne (she/her) A Two Gregg Tomelette Duncan Armstrong
    12 replies 132 retweets 418 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

        That's also why "worry about the flu" instead was such a wrong reaction in winter of 2020—a novel virus released into a population with no prior immunity is a *huge* threat. With time—vaccination and infection—the nature of that threat changes. (No, doesn't get to zero: changes).

        2 replies 5 retweets 107 likes
        Show this thread
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

        For Omicron: for all we know, if that were the version we faced first in 2020, it would cause just as severe and maybe even worse disease. Or not! Unclear. We don't know yet because we haven't yet seen reports of it impact on completely unvaccinated/uninfected populations.

        3 replies 10 retweets 109 likes
        Show this thread
      4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

        But it's not winter 2020! We have vaccines, antivirals, rapid tests, and a greater understanding of its airborne transmission. A lot more tools to dampen its spread, and also to make sure people encounter it with as robust an immune response as possible: vaccines, boosters...

        6 replies 10 retweets 102 likes
        Show this thread
      5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

        zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

        People keep assuming almost everyone in the world is seropositive (vaccination or infection). That is just not true: the remaining numbers are still large enough. Plus, as with other diseases, elderly have weaker response plus there is antigenic evolution.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1469313745839140866 …

        zeynep tufekci added,

        zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
        Replying to @asymmetricinfo
        Yes, and in large numbers and in many places. As @dylanhmorris keeps saying, people keep underestimating the seronegative population. When you run the math, it is actually not at all small. Absolutely large enough to stress health-care, at a minimum.
        5 replies 16 retweets 99 likes
        Show this thread
      6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

        Even things we consider mild (common colds) cause fatal outbreaks in nursing homes. And other respiratory diseases besides flu do cause significant burden. Generally mild for younger populations does not equal "does not matter." We've now added one more. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33501772/ pic.twitter.com/ZtelA5Etad

        2 replies 18 retweets 85 likes
        Show this thread
      7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

        So essentially, "most vaccinated/infected people will experience a milder course" can be true without the virus being intrinsically milder, and the threat can change with age, immunocompetence and virus evolution. This is fairly mundane, by the way.

        1 reply 16 retweets 119 likes
        Show this thread
      8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

        Thus, a mild plea for being specific, rather than the "it's over" vs "it will never be over" wars. Really appreciate the essay because of that. Explaining things in a bit of detail and treating the public like adults seems much more productive. *ducks*

        3 replies 11 retweets 126 likes
        Show this thread
      9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

        Also: even if Omicron cases in vaccinated/infected people are overwhelmingly mild🤞but symptomatic, a huge wave can still be a strain. If a tiny percent of those are severe that can add up quickly if the wave is big enough. Remember it is in *addition* to other seasonal viruses.

        8 replies 6 retweets 81 likes
        Show this thread
      10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

        Plus, US already has a Delta wave, thousand+ deaths daily, lowish and uneven rates of vaccination and healthcare system is stressed. Even the mildest Omicron wave, if big enough, will cause strain because it is *in addition.* Yes, everybody is tired, but the virus doesn't care.

        8 replies 12 retweets 85 likes
        Show this thread
      11. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

        zeynep tufekci Retweeted Peter Hershberg

        Not just approval—mass production. The real question usually isn't when approval comes, but how much of it is available then. Also: should go to countries with outbreaks, not be hoarded by wealthy ones without. (Pfizer's antiviral is variant independent).https://twitter.com/hershberg/status/1469379812217307143 …

        zeynep tufekci added,

        Peter Hershberg @hershberg
        Replying to @zeynep
        Why is approval of Pfizer’s antiviral pill taking so long? Seems like that would go a long way towards easing stress on the healthcare system.
        5 replies 10 retweets 59 likes
        Show this thread
      12. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2021

        Also masks, more cautious behavior, etc. Look at pediatric flu deaths for the past ~four years in the US, for example. Very striking—virtually disappeared last year. Still, it's early and we don't fully understand some of this. Counting on it seems unwise. https://twitter.com/rak3re/status/1469380281153081344 …pic.twitter.com/Jyvm7W9dck

        2 replies 16 retweets 75 likes
        Show this thread
      13. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Dec 2021

        zeynep tufekci Retweeted Shabir Madhi

        Adding useful thread by South African scientist. Need another week or two for more confidence, but shaping up so far, as many said, as antibody evasion, with previously infected/vaccinated largely protected from severity subject to age (elderly vulnerable), immunocompetence etc.https://twitter.com/ShabirMadh/status/1469391691035648005 …

        zeynep tufekci added,

        Shabir Madhi @ShabirMadh
        6. Attenuation of clinical course of illness. Likely explanation is the 73% of population in Gauteng with previous infection and/or vaccine induced underpinning T cell immunity, since omicron largely antibody evasive. Hospitalisation for severe Covid mainly in unvacccinated
        Show this thread
        2 replies 19 retweets 50 likes
        Show this thread
      14. End of conversation

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