That's also why "worry about the flu" instead was such a wrong reaction in winter of 2020—a novel virus released into a population with no prior immunity is a *huge* threat. With time—vaccination and infection—the nature of that threat changes. (No, doesn't get to zero: changes).
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For Omicron: for all we know, if that were the version we faced first in 2020, it would cause just as severe and maybe even worse disease. Or not! Unclear. We don't know yet because we haven't yet seen reports of it impact on completely unvaccinated/uninfected populations.
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But it's not winter 2020! We have vaccines, antivirals, rapid tests, and a greater understanding of its airborne transmission. A lot more tools to dampen its spread, and also to make sure people encounter it with as robust an immune response as possible: vaccines, boosters...
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People keep assuming almost everyone in the world is seropositive (vaccination or infection). That is just not true: the remaining numbers are still large enough. Plus, as with other diseases, elderly have weaker response plus there is antigenic evolution.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1469313745839140866 …
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Even things we consider mild (common colds) cause fatal outbreaks in nursing homes. And other respiratory diseases besides flu do cause significant burden. Generally mild for younger populations does not equal "does not matter." We've now added one more. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33501772/ pic.twitter.com/ZtelA5Etad
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So essentially, "most vaccinated/infected people will experience a milder course" can be true without the virus being intrinsically milder, and the threat can change with age, immunocompetence and virus evolution. This is fairly mundane, by the way.
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Thus, a mild plea for being specific, rather than the "it's over" vs "it will never be over" wars. Really appreciate the essay because of that. Explaining things in a bit of detail and treating the public like adults seems much more productive. *ducks*
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Also: even if Omicron cases in vaccinated/infected people are overwhelmingly mild
but symptomatic, a huge wave can still be a strain. If a tiny percent of those are severe that can add up quickly if the wave is big enough. Remember it is in *addition* to other seasonal viruses.Show this thread -
Plus, US already has a Delta wave, thousand+ deaths daily, lowish and uneven rates of vaccination and healthcare system is stressed. Even the mildest Omicron wave, if big enough, will cause strain because it is *in addition.* Yes, everybody is tired, but the virus doesn't care.
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Not just approval—mass production. The real question usually isn't when approval comes, but how much of it is available then. Also: should go to countries with outbreaks, not be hoarded by wealthy ones without. (Pfizer's antiviral is variant independent).https://twitter.com/hershberg/status/1469379812217307143 …
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Also masks, more cautious behavior, etc. Look at pediatric flu deaths for the past ~four years in the US, for example. Very striking—virtually disappeared last year. Still, it's early and we don't fully understand some of this. Counting on it seems unwise. https://twitter.com/rak3re/status/1469380281153081344 …pic.twitter.com/Jyvm7W9dck
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Adding useful thread by South African scientist. Need another week or two for more confidence, but shaping up so far, as many said, as antibody evasion, with previously infected/vaccinated largely protected from severity subject to age (elderly vulnerable), immunocompetence etc.https://twitter.com/ShabirMadh/status/1469391691035648005 …
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