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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Dec 2021

    zeynep tufekci Retweeted Natalie E. Dean, PhD

    Another excellent explainer from @nataliexdean. (Lego version soon?😀) This is also exactly why we do not, yet, know the intrinsic virulence of Omicron—what it would mean for someone neither vaccinated nor infected before. Two years in, multiple mediators of cases and severity.https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1468988174693289994 …

    zeynep tufekci added,

    Natalie E. Dean, PhDVerified account @nataliexdean
    A sketch to explain how a new variant may appear milder even with no change in underlying virulence. This can occur because, when calculating the fraction of cases that are severe, the denominator now includes many re-infections that had previously been averted. A thread. 1/8 pic.twitter.com/XxrYHnb6XY
    Show this thread
    9:49 AM - 9 Dec 2021
    • 34 Retweets
    • 128 Likes
    • Caryn Brooks simon cohen word saladin SilentConqueror Renaissance Man - Not (((Lynn Gazis-Sax))) Amy Kiefer Librarian Font Furidosu μ'sic forever
    7 replies 34 retweets 128 likes
      1. Pankaj Goel‏ @PankajGoel66 9 Dec 2021
        Replying to @zeynep @nataliexdean

        There's ton of leading data from all over the world in terms of "progression of disease". The block diagram is like digital states - health or disease is not digital and closer to analog, i.e., there is a progression in small steps - good or bad.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. Sarah Schacht‏ @SarahSchacht 9 Dec 2021
        Replying to @zeynep @nataliexdean

        We need a 2022 COVID guide which reads like a "make your own adventure" novel for individualized COVID risk. Never got COVID? Got a J&J in Spring, 2020? A Moderna booster in fall 2021? Turn to page 125. ...You've got a X% risk of Omicron becoming severe. Avoid Y type scenarios.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Andrea Brice‏ @DirtyDataGirl 9 Dec 2021
        Replying to @SarahSchacht @zeynep @nataliexdean

        talk about surviving the zombie apocalypse. heh

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
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      2. Adithya Ramachandran‏ @AdithyaR_YXE 9 Dec 2021
        Replying to @MakeBLTs @zeynep @nataliexdean

        Still better than 0. Get them #3 when they are eligible.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. Christopher‏ @ChristoTheran 9 Dec 2021
        Replying to @zeynep @nataliexdean

        Completely genuine question, if I’m reading this and other analyses correctly … wouldn’t it be safe to assume that many in Africa infected with the new variant have not been vaccinated and some of those haven’t been previously infected?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Dec 2021
        Replying to @ChristoTheran @nataliexdean

        Quite the opposite. Almost everyone, if not everyone, may well have been vaccinated and/or infected by some calculations. Not sure the exact number of truly seronegative people in that province are—some disputes over it—but it is not that high, relatively speaking.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Gregory Wieber‏ @dreamwieber 9 Dec 2021
        Replying to @zeynep @nataliexdean

        This to me is why the “mild” takes feel callous to, for instance, kids too young for vaccines w/ no prior infection, w/ a variant that appears to be hospitalizing young people (based on very limited data)

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