There's ton of leading data from all over the world in terms of "progression of disease". The block diagram is like digital states - health or disease is not digital and closer to analog, i.e., there is a progression in small steps - good or bad.
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We need a 2022 COVID guide which reads like a "make your own adventure" novel for individualized COVID risk. Never got COVID? Got a J&J in Spring, 2020? A Moderna booster in fall 2021? Turn to page 125. ...You've got a X% risk of Omicron becoming severe. Avoid Y type scenarios.
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talk about surviving the zombie apocalypse. heh
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Still better than 0. Get them #3 when they are eligible.
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Completely genuine question, if I’m reading this and other analyses correctly … wouldn’t it be safe to assume that many in Africa infected with the new variant have not been vaccinated and some of those haven’t been previously infected?
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Quite the opposite. Almost everyone, if not everyone, may well have been vaccinated and/or infected by some calculations. Not sure the exact number of truly seronegative people in that province are—some disputes over it—but it is not that high, relatively speaking.
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This to me is why the “mild” takes feel callous to, for instance, kids too young for vaccines w/ no prior infection, w/ a variant that appears to be hospitalizing young people (based on very limited data)
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) This is also exactly why we do not, yet, know the intrinsic virulence of Omicron—what it would mean for someone neither vaccinated nor infected before. Two years in, multiple mediators of cases and severity.