Thoughts on this @zeynep? If total population seroconversion will end the pandemic because the danger is the novelty, then shouldn’t a seroprevalence of >98% for everyone over 16 and lots of “hybrid immunity” from rampant delta transmission have ended the pandemic in the UK?https://twitter.com/Gab_H_R/status/1468645767262916608 …
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They’ve nearly all seroconverted. Nearly everyone’s immune system has met either the virus or the vaccine. So hospitals should be fine now if it was that simple.
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Are you suggesting that the goalpost is now that everyone has to be vaccinated *and* subsequently infected to end the pandemic? Delta immunity doesn’t translate well to omicron immunity as evidenced by Pfizer’s data.
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Why only infected with Delta and not earlier variants?
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Non math answer please: high but not as high the government rhetoric would lead one to believe. Some adults are only now eligible for second vaccine -- and still no masks required in universities or schools.
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ONS studies show circa 30% UK population have had infection. Roughly 15% last year and 15% this.
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Did your novelty = severity argument depend on hybrid immunity? I know
@lisa_iannattone just mentioned it, but her core question was about your argument. I checked the essay published on Insight and didn’t see hybrid. Did you yourself mention it anywhere else as key? -
If not, then this math exercise seems to be moving the goalposts. SARS-Cov-2 is not novel for the vast, vast majority of the UK adult population, due to vaccines and prior exposure. If we need new restrictions, isn’t the novelty argument wrong or incomplete?
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This isn't a math exercise this is a confabulation.
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People asked to work from home and face masks to be worn in more places, as part of Plan B restrictions for England announced by Prime Minister Boris Johnson
-BBC