We haven’t run out of seronegatives in highly vaccinated countries either. And yet the death curves look extremely different. If waves were just about finding the seronegatives, then it wouldn’t make such a huge difference whether countries were leaning on vaccines or infection.
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Replying to @lisa_iannattone @zeynep
And there’s this study on Iran that shows they likely did run out of seronegatives and the IFR increased over time. Please reconsider these broad suggestions that infection immunity is as good as vaccine immunity when the evidence isn’t there.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.04.21264540v1 …
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Replying to @lisa_iannattone
That study from Iran needs to fix the CFR. It doesn't match with what we've observed, and if you get the wrong CFR your estimates will be way off—same problem with that Manaus paper. Yes, we haven't run out of seronegatives, that is exactly my point.
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Replying to @lisa_iannattone
The force clearly driving hospitalization and deaths everywhere is remaining seronegatives. Sadly, sometimes the number isn't easily available and people can talk themselves into early herd immunity projections or severe re-infection stories. The epi is clear. Omicron, we'll see.
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Replying to @lisa_iannattone
That chart absolutely, positively does not compare infection vs vaccine-immunity. I give up, honestly, if you think that chart shows anything of the sort. Honestly feel like I'm arguing on how snacks can't cause so much superspreading, so one more tweet and then I'll leave this.
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Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone
The question itself is important & that data isn't conclusive—obviously, avoiding infections via vaccines is best. But I can't really keep arguing things that are quite obvious from the epi data, are coherent, match the science. Like airborne spread, time will help understanding.
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Replying to @lisa_iannattone
Pretty clear that "hybrid" is way stronger, and why not? That, itself, doesn't resolve the question between infection versus vaccination alone and I did not say the two are proven equal. Both obviously lead to milder future cases but it's possible there are differences of degree.
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By the way, vaccinated and then infected also will almost certainly lead to stronger response—hybrid immunity is going to work both ways, from all indications. Again, though, of course I'd prefer vaccination alone to infection alone. I mean, of course.
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Replying to @lisa_iannattone @zeynep
but also, immunity from infection is a type of Russian Roulette. Huge risk of serious sequeale and long covid. I am now triple-Pfizered, but would have preferred a mixture.
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