Do the correct math on the seronegatives, and it's pretty clear. You can also see surges in high-vaccination places—even 20% remaining is lots of people. As you note, small numbers are big effects at scale. I see zero evidence to assume those countries ran out of seronegatives.
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Replying to @zeynep
We haven’t run out of seronegatives in highly vaccinated countries either. And yet the death curves look extremely different. If waves were just about finding the seronegatives, then it wouldn’t make such a huge difference whether countries were leaning on vaccines or infection.
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Replying to @lisa_iannattone @zeynep
And there’s this study on Iran that shows they likely did run out of seronegatives and the IFR increased over time. Please reconsider these broad suggestions that infection immunity is as good as vaccine immunity when the evidence isn’t there.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.04.21264540v1 …
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Replying to @lisa_iannattone
That study from Iran needs to fix the CFR. It doesn't match with what we've observed, and if you get the wrong CFR your estimates will be way off—same problem with that Manaus paper. Yes, we haven't run out of seronegatives, that is exactly my point.
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Replying to @lisa_iannattone
The force clearly driving hospitalization and deaths everywhere is remaining seronegatives. Sadly, sometimes the number isn't easily available and people can talk themselves into early herd immunity projections or severe re-infection stories. The epi is clear. Omicron, we'll see.
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Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone
I went through a year of no, look at the epi, "it can't be the snacks" and, honestly, this has the same issue for me. The epi pattern is clear. The science is clear. They match. It's coherent and complete. So that's hard for me to keep arguing.
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Replying to @zeynep
I was an early convert to airborne transmission and I fully agreed with you on that then. But being right about airborne spread doesn’t mean you can’t fumble on other topics. You misstepped with delta. And insisting infection immunity can end the pandemic is another misstep.
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Replying to @lisa_iannattone
Hah. I'm fine with my response to Delta. I objected to someone who routinely overstates facts, and gets them wrong that the faux alarmism was causing people to relax when they should *alarm* and wrote pretty much the first big piece on Delta in the NYT the moment we got clarity.
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We'll see about the rest. I'm comfortable where things are with the data, the epi, the science. Time will help, as it has with everything I've argued about during this pandemic so far. I say fairly obvious things when the data is screaming, it's a good trick. :-D Have a nice day.
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