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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone

      Let me put it this way. There is absolutely no way to explain the epi curve you see in *every* country over time without accepting re-infections and breakthroughs are milder on average. No way. It's the same way droplets/contact only could not explain the epi data. Clear as day.

      2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone

      Do the correct math on the seronegatives, and it's pretty clear. You can also see surges in high-vaccination places—even 20% remaining is lots of people. As you note, small numbers are big effects at scale. I see zero evidence to assume those countries ran out of seronegatives.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    4. Dr. Lisa Iannattone‏ @lisa_iannattone 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      We haven’t run out of seronegatives in highly vaccinated countries either. And yet the death curves look extremely different. If waves were just about finding the seronegatives, then it wouldn’t make such a huge difference whether countries were leaning on vaccines or infection.

      1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes
    5. Dr. Lisa Iannattone‏ @lisa_iannattone 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone @zeynep

      And there’s this study on Iran that shows they likely did run out of seronegatives and the IFR increased over time. Please reconsider these broad suggestions that infection immunity is as good as vaccine immunity when the evidence isn’t there.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.04.21264540v1 …

      2 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone

      That study from Iran needs to fix the CFR. It doesn't match with what we've observed, and if you get the wrong CFR your estimates will be way off—same problem with that Manaus paper. Yes, we haven't run out of seronegatives, that is exactly my point.

      0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone

      The force clearly driving hospitalization and deaths everywhere is remaining seronegatives. Sadly, sometimes the number isn't easily available and people can talk themselves into early herd immunity projections or severe re-infection stories. The epi is clear. Omicron, we'll see.

      3 replies 3 retweets 28 likes
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    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone

      That chart absolutely, positively does not compare infection vs vaccine-immunity. I give up, honestly, if you think that chart shows anything of the sort. Honestly feel like I'm arguing on how snacks can't cause so much superspreading, so one more tweet and then I'll leave this.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone

      The question itself is important & that data isn't conclusive—obviously, avoiding infections via vaccines is best. But I can't really keep arguing things that are quite obvious from the epi data, are coherent, match the science. Like airborne spread, time will help understanding.

      9:15 AM - 7 Dec 2021
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      • Se sacrificó la salud para no salvar la economía. Tres Leches
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @lisa_iannattone

          Pretty clear that "hybrid" is way stronger, and why not? That, itself, doesn't resolve the question between infection versus vaccination alone and I did not say the two are proven equal. Both obviously lead to milder future cases but it's possible there are differences of degree.

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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