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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Dr. Lisa Iannattone‏ @lisa_iannattone 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      There’s actually not much data on severity of reinfections and much of the data we have doesn’t suggest a milder course for all. We could just as easily say primary infections are mild on average but the avg isn’t the story. The small % of a large number = many w severe disease.

      1 reply 1 retweet 20 likes
    2. Dr. Lisa Iannattone‏ @lisa_iannattone 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone @zeynep

      Reinfection severity data that suggests many can have a more severe course the second time. And this was all pre-delta and pre-omicron. https://secure.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/action/getSharedSiteSession?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com%2Farticle%2FS1198-743X%2821%2900422-5%2Ffulltext&rc=0& … https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7008a3.htm?s_cid=mm7008a3_w … https://jim.bmj.com/content/69/6/1253 … https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.04.21264540v1 …

      1 reply 2 retweets 18 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone

      You can have cases here and there more severe—especially with strain changes. But I've seen all those studies. The key issue is the obvious, glaring conditional probability. You cannot only study the re-infections you encounter—obviously sicker than population-wide.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone

      Let me put it this way. There is absolutely no way to explain the epi curve you see in *every* country over time without accepting re-infections and breakthroughs are milder on average. No way. It's the same way droplets/contact only could not explain the epi data. Clear as day.

      2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
    5. This Tweet is unavailable.
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone

      Do the correct math on the seronegatives, and it's pretty clear. You can also see surges in high-vaccination places—even 20% remaining is lots of people. As you note, small numbers are big effects at scale. I see zero evidence to assume those countries ran out of seronegatives.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    7. Dr. Lisa Iannattone‏ @lisa_iannattone 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      We haven’t run out of seronegatives in highly vaccinated countries either. And yet the death curves look extremely different. If waves were just about finding the seronegatives, then it wouldn’t make such a huge difference whether countries were leaning on vaccines or infection.

      1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes
    8. Dr. Lisa Iannattone‏ @lisa_iannattone 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone @zeynep

      And there’s this study on Iran that shows they likely did run out of seronegatives and the IFR increased over time. Please reconsider these broad suggestions that infection immunity is as good as vaccine immunity when the evidence isn’t there.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.04.21264540v1 …

      2 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone

      That study from Iran needs to fix the CFR. It doesn't match with what we've observed, and if you get the wrong CFR your estimates will be way off—same problem with that Manaus paper. Yes, we haven't run out of seronegatives, that is exactly my point.

      0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    10. This Tweet is unavailable.
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone

      The force clearly driving hospitalization and deaths everywhere is remaining seronegatives. Sadly, sometimes the number isn't easily available and people can talk themselves into early herd immunity projections or severe re-infection stories. The epi is clear. Omicron, we'll see.

      8:53 AM - 7 Dec 2021
      • 3 Retweets
      • 28 Likes
      • Nora Cutcliffe miki 𝓝𝓪𝓽𝓻𝓲𝓬𝓮𝓡 😷🇨🇦❤️ 🥀 Alpha A. Arun Mukherjee Bluesrules #BLM-Triple Vaxed Mari Lyn 🇨🇦 Scooterissima🇨🇦🌎🍊 Brad DeLong 🖖 💉
      3 replies 3 retweets 28 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone

          I went through a year of no, look at the epi, "it can't be the snacks" and, honestly, this has the same issue for me. The epi pattern is clear. The science is clear. They match. It's coherent and complete. So that's hard for me to keep arguing.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Dr. Lisa Iannattone‏ @lisa_iannattone 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          I was an early convert to airborne transmission and I fully agreed with you on that then. But being right about airborne spread doesn’t mean you can’t fumble on other topics. You misstepped with delta. And insisting infection immunity can end the pandemic is another misstep.

          1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Zero Covid Thailand‏ @zerocovidthai 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone

          Let's revisit this in a year and compare it with what you're saying then. Also remember that we already know #LongCovidisCovid - so counting reinfection outcomes vs single infections must also include delayed hospitalisations (pointing this out in advance). Have a nice day!pic.twitter.com/7MWgO8UaAB

          3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Anthony J Leonardi, PhD, MS‏ @fitterhappierAJ 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zerocovidthai @zeynep @lisa_iannattone

          azn was only 80 percent effective against severe disease for delta if I recall correctly. I dont know why she is content to call the pandemic over if people are seropositive.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. #MasksInSchools Dr Noor Bari‏ @NjbBari3 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone

          Hmmm Serial infections with COVID-19 may cause accumulation of systemic damage to immune system, blood vessels and organs. Strongly advise using vaccination rather than infection to seroconvert. Strongly advise against frequent serial infections.

          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        3. #MasksInSchools Dr Noor Bari‏ @NjbBari3 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @NjbBari3 @zeynep @lisa_iannattone

          Over a lifetime each reinfection will vary in severity depending on what your immunity is like at the time, including recent or current infections with other viruses, advancing age and accumulating comorbidities (which is likely with COVID-19 infections) and time since last vax.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. Show replies

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