Just as there are many noroviruses and immunity from one doesn’t translate to immunity to another, immunity to one SARS2 virus may not translate to immunity to a sufficiently different SARS2 virus. We’re far too early in the course to be as certain about this as you seem to be.
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Replying to @lisa_iannattone
zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
Not a bold statement. Everything else equal, of course re-infections are milder *on average*. We have so much data on this now. Two, as first tweet explains, a new variant is not everything else equal, so can be *more* severe to people with no immunity.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1465075561236250631 …
zeynep tufekci added,
zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynepThis is a myth. Especially for a virus that can transmit early in disease course, like this one, selection pressure is on transmission, not virulence. So a new variant can be MORE or LESS virulent (when everything else equal, i.e. host immunity). https://twitter.com/soccervolleymom/status/1465074442044850183 …Show this thread3 replies 1 retweet 9 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
There’s actually not much data on severity of reinfections and much of the data we have doesn’t suggest a milder course for all. We could just as easily say primary infections are mild on average but the avg isn’t the story. The small % of a large number = many w severe disease.
1 reply 1 retweet 20 likes -
Replying to @lisa_iannattone @zeynep
Reinfection severity data that suggests many can have a more severe course the second time. And this was all pre-delta and pre-omicron. https://secure.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/action/getSharedSiteSession?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com%2Farticle%2FS1198-743X%2821%2900422-5%2Ffulltext&rc=0& … https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7008a3.htm?s_cid=mm7008a3_w … https://jim.bmj.com/content/69/6/1253 … https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.04.21264540v1 …
1 reply 2 retweets 18 likes -
Replying to @lisa_iannattone
You can have cases here and there more severe—especially with strain changes. But I've seen all those studies. The key issue is the obvious, glaring conditional probability. You cannot only study the re-infections you encounter—obviously sicker than population-wide.
2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone
Let me put it this way. There is absolutely no way to explain the epi curve you see in *every* country over time without accepting re-infections and breakthroughs are milder on average. No way. It's the same way droplets/contact only could not explain the epi data. Clear as day.
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Replying to @lisa_iannattone
Do the correct math on the seronegatives, and it's pretty clear. You can also see surges in high-vaccination places—even 20% remaining is lots of people. As you note, small numbers are big effects at scale. I see zero evidence to assume those countries ran out of seronegatives.
1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
We haven’t run out of seronegatives in highly vaccinated countries either. And yet the death curves look extremely different. If waves were just about finding the seronegatives, then it wouldn’t make such a huge difference whether countries were leaning on vaccines or infection.
1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes -
Replying to @lisa_iannattone @zeynep
And there’s this study on Iran that shows they likely did run out of seronegatives and the IFR increased over time. Please reconsider these broad suggestions that infection immunity is as good as vaccine immunity when the evidence isn’t there.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.04.21264540v1 …
2 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
That study from Iran needs to fix the CFR. It doesn't match with what we've observed, and if you get the wrong CFR your estimates will be way off—same problem with that Manaus paper. Yes, we haven't run out of seronegatives, that is exactly my point.
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Replying to @lisa_iannattone @zeynep
In vaxx countries risk groups want to get vaccinated and do it. In low vaxx/high infection countries they don't want to get infected and have less contacts. Thus the distributions of immunity differ between the countries roads to seroconversion. Is that enough to explain it?
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
End of conversation
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