Again: Viruses do not necessarily evolve to be milder—especially if they transmit early, like this one. Our immune system learning about it—via vaccines or infection—can mean better response next time, so milder experience. Not same as virus becoming intrinsically less virulent.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1465075561236250631 …
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Just like why airborne transmission was so obviously true, here, we understand the science, so we get the mechanisms. So here, too, we have population-wide data, solid science, and science and epi data producing a coherent explanation only in one possible way. Can't do better.
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Do the correct math on the seronegatives, and it's pretty clear. You can also see surges in high-vaccination places—even 20% remaining is lots of people. As you note, small numbers are big effects at scale. I see zero evidence to assume those countries ran out of seronegatives.
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I would love to know about longcovid versus reinfection....
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