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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      Again: Viruses do not necessarily evolve to be milder—especially if they transmit early, like this one. Our immune system learning about it—via vaccines or infection—can mean better response next time, so milder experience. Not same as virus becoming intrinsically less virulent.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1465075561236250631 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      This is a myth. Especially for a virus that can transmit early in disease course, like this one, selection pressure is on transmission, not virulence. So a new variant can be MORE or LESS virulent (when everything else equal, i.e. host immunity). https://twitter.com/soccervolleymom/status/1465074442044850183 …
      Show this thread
      19 replies 275 retweets 1,072 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Dr. Lisa Iannattone‏ @lisa_iannattone 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      This is a bold statement to make while we wait on omicron reinfection severity data. If a variant is sufficiently different, immunity from previous infection may not be effective. Consider how norovirus keeps causing the same gastro symptoms for all ages with each reinfection.

      2 replies 4 retweets 39 likes
    3. Dr. Lisa Iannattone‏ @lisa_iannattone 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone @zeynep

      Just as there are many noroviruses and immunity from one doesn’t translate to immunity to another, immunity to one SARS2 virus may not translate to immunity to a sufficiently different SARS2 virus. We’re far too early in the course to be as certain about this as you seem to be.

      2 replies 3 retweets 33 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      Not a bold statement. Everything else equal, of course re-infections are milder *on average*. We have so much data on this now. Two, as first tweet explains, a new variant is not everything else equal, so can be *more* severe to people with no immunity.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1465075561236250631 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      This is a myth. Especially for a virus that can transmit early in disease course, like this one, selection pressure is on transmission, not virulence. So a new variant can be MORE or LESS virulent (when everything else equal, i.e. host immunity). https://twitter.com/soccervolleymom/status/1465074442044850183 …
      Show this thread
      3 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
    5. Dr. Lisa Iannattone‏ @lisa_iannattone 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      There’s actually not much data on severity of reinfections and much of the data we have doesn’t suggest a milder course for all. We could just as easily say primary infections are mild on average but the avg isn’t the story. The small % of a large number = many w severe disease.

      1 reply 1 retweet 20 likes
    6. Dr. Lisa Iannattone‏ @lisa_iannattone 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone @zeynep

      Reinfection severity data that suggests many can have a more severe course the second time. And this was all pre-delta and pre-omicron. https://secure.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/action/getSharedSiteSession?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com%2Farticle%2FS1198-743X%2821%2900422-5%2Ffulltext&rc=0& … https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7008a3.htm?s_cid=mm7008a3_w … https://jim.bmj.com/content/69/6/1253 … https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.04.21264540v1 …

      1 reply 2 retweets 18 likes
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone

      You can have cases here and there more severe—especially with strain changes. But I've seen all those studies. The key issue is the obvious, glaring conditional probability. You cannot only study the re-infections you encounter—obviously sicker than population-wide.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone

      Let me put it this way. There is absolutely no way to explain the epi curve you see in *every* country over time without accepting re-infections and breakthroughs are milder on average. No way. It's the same way droplets/contact only could not explain the epi data. Clear as day.

      8:07 AM - 7 Dec 2021
      • 10 Likes
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      2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone

          Just like why airborne transmission was so obviously true, here, we understand the science, so we get the mechanisms. So here, too, we have population-wide data, solid science, and science and epi data producing a coherent explanation only in one possible way. Can't do better.🤷‍♀️

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @lisa_iannattone

          Do the correct math on the seronegatives, and it's pretty clear. You can also see surges in high-vaccination places—even 20% remaining is lots of people. As you note, small numbers are big effects at scale. I see zero evidence to assume those countries ran out of seronegatives.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. Marie jobin‏ @Mariejobin1 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone

          I would love to know about longcovid versus reinfection....

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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