Again: Viruses do not necessarily evolve to be milder—especially if they transmit early, like this one. Our immune system learning about it—via vaccines or infection—can mean better response next time, so milder experience. Not same as virus becoming intrinsically less virulent.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1465075561236250631 …
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Let me put it this way. There is absolutely no way to explain the epi curve you see in *every* country over time without accepting re-infections and breakthroughs are milder on average. No way. It's the same way droplets/contact only could not explain the epi data. Clear as day.
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Just like why airborne transmission was so obviously true, here, we understand the science, so we get the mechanisms. So here, too, we have population-wide data, solid science, and science and epi data producing a coherent explanation only in one possible way. Can't do better.
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You can make the exact same statement about primary infections. It was a popular anti-masker line early on that 99.5% of people survive. We can’t discount the small percentage that will go on to have severe disease on reinfection w VOCs that are increasingly more transmissible.
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Small percentages of big numbers are big numbers. You know this.
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