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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      Again: Viruses do not necessarily evolve to be milder—especially if they transmit early, like this one. Our immune system learning about it—via vaccines or infection—can mean better response next time, so milder experience. Not same as virus becoming intrinsically less virulent.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1465075561236250631 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      This is a myth. Especially for a virus that can transmit early in disease course, like this one, selection pressure is on transmission, not virulence. So a new variant can be MORE or LESS virulent (when everything else equal, i.e. host immunity). https://twitter.com/soccervolleymom/status/1465074442044850183 …
      Show this thread
      19 replies 275 retweets 1,072 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021

      Selection is on transmission: viruses becoming more transmissible makes sense! People may be thinking more transmission via milder disease because host moves around more? But virus could still kill the host, eventually, or transmit early, as this one, without dampening spread.

      6 replies 24 retweets 149 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021

      Evolution is not a teleological process, bad match for a story-telling species' brain. Things seem to make sense—the just-so story—but we must go back to the mechanism. What's being selected for? How? FWIW, I don't think we have clarity on Omicron's intrinsic virulence, yet.

      3 replies 28 retweets 220 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Prinz-Midas

      No, this doesn't make sense. There is no intrinsic trade-off mechanism between the two, and situations where both can and do go up, like Delta. And the virus doesn't "care" if it eventually kills its host as long as it is spreading.https://twitter.com/PrinzMidas/status/1468228080024137737 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Prinz-Midas @PrinzMidas
      Replying to @zeynep
      No virus would profit from killing its host. When it mutates it makes sense that it changes lethality for infectiousness. But there might be mutations that could be more lethal by chance, right?
      6:47 AM - 7 Dec 2021
      • 42 Retweets
      • 266 Likes
      • Escape Velocity... sssh I 'neeked out again AllTheDisasters FVM David Bernat Two Buck Novichok ❰vacciboosted❱ Gail Nevin Henry Sulid Fan Account Sydney Netter
      14 replies 42 retweets 266 likes
        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021

          SARS-CoV-2 transmits early in the disease course, sometimes before symptoms, and severe illness and death comes much, much later, *after* the most infectious period. "Milder" to vaccinated or previously infected people is different than "it became intrinsically less virulent."

          7 replies 30 retweets 174 likes
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        2. Prinz-Midas‏ @PrinzMidas 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Delta as well as Omicron both seem to be less lethal and more contagious than Alpha, which is why I came to make that observation.

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Veronica Cristina‏ @veronicacris 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @PrinzMidas @zeynep

          If it spreads more it can be more lethal. 🤔

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Bubba Karras‏ @MichaelDKarras 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          This is not what @MonicaGandhi9 says, BTW. IIRC, she says viruses do tend to get less virulent over time. Maybe I'm misremembering?

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Veronica Cristina‏ @veronicacris 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @MichaelDKarras @zeynep @MonicaGandhi9

          That is not what virologists says.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Steve Vio‏ @steve_vio 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          It would take a sizable population crash to put that kind of evolutionary pressure on a virus.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Ernest Borg Ten  🥑 🍁‏ @ErnestBorgTen 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          I mean, in terms of the virus' ability to spread, isn't a dead person the same as an immune person? That said, 1 percentage point more or less lethality would be a dramatic change to us, but in terms of infection rate that would be a rounding error.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Jellian Wilkins‏ @jellywilkins 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          I've been having exactly this argument for the past couple of days. As long as enough people survive for *long enough* for a variant to out-compete its rivals than it will. There's no linear rule for % reduction in illness vs fitness.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. USGS: Sea Level Rise in Melting Glaciers is 263'‏ @Ignoroptimist 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          The 1918 flu pandemic proves the point.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. John Humphrey Noyes‏ @NoyesJHumphrey 7 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          To a virus, killing seroconverted hosts makes perfect sense when dense host populations are competing for scarce resources.

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