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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021

    zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

    Again: Viruses do not necessarily evolve to be milder—especially if they transmit early, like this one. Our immune system learning about it—via vaccines or infection—can mean better response next time, so milder experience. Not same as virus becoming intrinsically less virulent.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1465075561236250631 …

    zeynep tufekci added,

    zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
    This is a myth. Especially for a virus that can transmit early in disease course, like this one, selection pressure is on transmission, not virulence. So a new variant can be MORE or LESS virulent (when everything else equal, i.e. host immunity). https://twitter.com/soccervolleymom/status/1465074442044850183 …
    Show this thread
    6:27 AM - 7 Dec 2021
    • 275 Retweets
    • 1,072 Likes
    • Heather 🇨🇦 🎼🌈 N H Marcelo de G. Malheiros #UsePFF2 😷 Escape Velocity... sssh I 'neeked out again Laura Katherine AllTheDisasters FVM Kat Chen | 陈燕情 Meadhbh Fitz
    19 replies 275 retweets 1,072 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021

        Selection is on transmission: viruses becoming more transmissible makes sense! People may be thinking more transmission via milder disease because host moves around more? But virus could still kill the host, eventually, or transmit early, as this one, without dampening spread.

        6 replies 24 retweets 149 likes
        Show this thread
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021

        Evolution is not a teleological process, bad match for a story-telling species' brain. Things seem to make sense—the just-so story—but we must go back to the mechanism. What's being selected for? How? FWIW, I don't think we have clarity on Omicron's intrinsic virulence, yet.

        3 replies 28 retweets 220 likes
        Show this thread
      4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021

        zeynep tufekci Retweeted Prinz-Midas

        No, this doesn't make sense. There is no intrinsic trade-off mechanism between the two, and situations where both can and do go up, like Delta. And the virus doesn't "care" if it eventually kills its host as long as it is spreading.https://twitter.com/PrinzMidas/status/1468228080024137737 …

        zeynep tufekci added,

        Prinz-Midas @PrinzMidas
        Replying to @zeynep
        No virus would profit from killing its host. When it mutates it makes sense that it changes lethality for infectiousness. But there might be mutations that could be more lethal by chance, right?
        14 replies 42 retweets 266 likes
        Show this thread
      5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Dec 2021

        SARS-CoV-2 transmits early in the disease course, sometimes before symptoms, and severe illness and death comes much, much later, *after* the most infectious period. "Milder" to vaccinated or previously infected people is different than "it became intrinsically less virulent."

        7 replies 30 retweets 174 likes
        Show this thread
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Jesse Harrison‏ @red8jwoe 7 Dec 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        Assuming omicron did oiginate in a chronically infected individual I suppose this lends some hope it could be milder overall though

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Jesse Harrison‏ @red8jwoe 7 Dec 2021
        Replying to @red8jwoe @zeynep

        I dont want to oversimplify as I realize that's exactly the problem here, but keeping track of the interplaying predictive factors is fun

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Veronica Cristina‏ @veronicacris 7 Dec 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        South Africa is seeing a surge on hospitalizations because of Omicron and small % vaccinated. Do you took a look on Rio De Janeiro Flu big surge? Seems like a new mutation H3

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Veronica Cristina‏ @veronicacris 7 Dec 2021
        Replying to @veronicacris @zeynep

        The flu surge is overwhelming the city health system. And federal government is not sending Flu vaccines, the stock ended days ago.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Jeremy’s Iron‏ @Harvey_Birdlaw 7 Dec 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        👏 Louder, for @RichardAEpstein and his disciples.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Prinz-Midas‏ @PrinzMidas 7 Dec 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        No virus would profit from killing its host. When it mutates it makes sense that it changes lethality for infectiousness. But there might be mutations that could be more lethal by chance, right?

        12 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Ed‏ @eduleal 7 Dec 2021
        Replying to @PrinzMidas @zeynep

        As long as the virus is able to infect more people before it kills its host (i.e. higher viral loads make them more ill AND spreads more, but the latter happens before the former), lethality has no relationship with it. In fact, if it's viral load the driver, it'll be both.

        0 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
      4. End of conversation

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