Thanks to South Africa, we learned about this threat very early. They will likely be the ones to tell us more. (Though I suspect they are too responsible to do so, who'd blame them if they held the information till we at least apologize for our response).https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1465334340255113218 …
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted JJota
I hope that's a misphrasing. Yeah, "there's no evidence": exactly, there's no strong evidence either way. Most cases of *all* variants, even Delta, are mild. The question is, on average, where does this fall, and why? We. Don't. and. Can't. Yet. Know.https://twitter.com/jjcalles/status/1466109069987622913 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
I updated my NYT piece a tiny bit when it came out in print yesterday, but the same principle holds. We don't know. We *should* act defensively, till we know more, but in a targeted, smart way, not in a performative manner merely targeting passports.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1464994776365871105 …
zeynep tufekci added,
zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynepSouth Africa has gifted us an early warning with Omicron. But earlier the warning, the less we know. Still, we must act now, while waiting for clarity. We need smart, comprehensive measures, not pandemic theater. Can we please, finally learn? New from me: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/28/opinion/covid-omicron-travel-ban-testing.html … pic.twitter.com/O3EI8lDam6Show this thread2 replies 19 retweets 182 likesShow this thread -
Personally, I'd be surprised if vaccine efficacy against breakthroughs didn't take a hit and there weren't more reinfections because of Omicron. But will those breakthroughs/re-infections be symptomatic? Mild? Severe? Will it spread widely? Don't know. Have to wait. No shortcuts.
8 replies 11 retweets 229 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Who Killed Dove? 🏴
That's the only part we have some strong evidence for, from analyzing the genome. But do note: vaccine efficacy measures symptomatic breakthroughs, so it doesn't tell us about their efficacy against severe disease: that, too, will need time.https://twitter.com/damagecase1982/status/1466123483520409608 …
zeynep tufekci added,
5 replies 7 retweets 104 likesShow this thread -
There's a timeline to the epistemology of this. There are some things we can make reasonable guesses about from the genome and soon-to-arrive lab work, but some key questions need to wait for clinical and epidemiological data. Both
@trvrb &@jbloom_lab had great threads recently.3 replies 5 retweets 66 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Trevor Bedford
zeynep tufekci added,
Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrbUnder a scenario of 90% population immunity against previous variants, we get the following picture where Omicron could lie anywhere along the dashed line ranging from an intrinsic R0 of 3 and 83% immune escape to an intrinsic R0 of 9 and 20% immune escape. 14/18 pic.twitter.com/nh2CzoL0L4Show this thread1 reply 5 retweets 61 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Bloom Lab
Here's another.https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1464005690775654401 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Bloom Lab @jbloom_labImportantly, this does *not* mean Nu variant will fully escape vaccine- or infection-elicited antibodies.@PaulBieniasz@theodora_nyc have shown takes many many mutations to fully escape neutralization (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04005-0 …), & there are also T-cells, non-neut Abs, etc. (5/n)Show this thread2 replies 4 retweets 38 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted SAMRC
Truly appreciate how quickly South African public health officials are sharing data. I’m seeing people conclude from this, though, that Omicron is mild. Maybe. Maybe not. Still too early. Only thing that seems assured is more breakthroughs and re-infections. Still need time.https://twitter.com/MRCza/status/1467138777881747456 …
zeynep tufekci added,
4 replies 14 retweets 129 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @zeynep
The IMF/international community should send billions of dollars to SA to recoup the tourism and travel losses created by scientists doing great work. It’s like the nation is punished for discovering the variant and warning the work
2 replies 18 retweets 97 likes
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