I hope that's a misphrasing. Yeah, "there's no evidence": exactly, there's no strong evidence either way. Most cases of *all* variants, even Delta, are mild. The question is, on average, where does this fall, and why? We. Don't. and. Can't. Yet. Know.https://twitter.com/jjcalles/status/1466109069987622913 …
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
I updated my NYT piece a tiny bit when it came out in print yesterday, but the same principle holds. We don't know. We *should* act defensively, till we know more, but in a targeted, smart way, not in a performative manner merely targeting passports.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1464994776365871105 …
zeynep tufekci added,
zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynepSouth Africa has gifted us an early warning with Omicron. But earlier the warning, the less we know. Still, we must act now, while waiting for clarity. We need smart, comprehensive measures, not pandemic theater. Can we please, finally learn? New from me: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/28/opinion/covid-omicron-travel-ban-testing.html … pic.twitter.com/O3EI8lDam6Show this thread2 replies 19 retweets 182 likesShow this thread -
Personally, I'd be surprised if vaccine efficacy against breakthroughs didn't take a hit and there weren't more reinfections because of Omicron. But will those breakthroughs/re-infections be symptomatic? Mild? Severe? Will it spread widely? Don't know. Have to wait. No shortcuts.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Who Killed Dove? 🏴
That's the only part we have some strong evidence for, from analyzing the genome. But do note: vaccine efficacy measures symptomatic breakthroughs, so it doesn't tell us about their efficacy against severe disease: that, too, will need time.https://twitter.com/damagecase1982/status/1466123483520409608 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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There's a timeline to the epistemology of this. There are some things we can make reasonable guesses about from the genome and soon-to-arrive lab work, but some key questions need to wait for clinical and epidemiological data. Both
@trvrb &@jbloom_lab had great threads recently.3 replies 5 retweets 66 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Trevor Bedford
zeynep tufekci added,
Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrbUnder a scenario of 90% population immunity against previous variants, we get the following picture where Omicron could lie anywhere along the dashed line ranging from an intrinsic R0 of 3 and 83% immune escape to an intrinsic R0 of 9 and 20% immune escape. 14/18 pic.twitter.com/nh2CzoL0L4Show this thread1 reply 5 retweets 61 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Bloom Lab
Here's another.https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1464005690775654401 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Bloom Lab @jbloom_labImportantly, this does *not* mean Nu variant will fully escape vaccine- or infection-elicited antibodies.@PaulBieniasz@theodora_nyc have shown takes many many mutations to fully escape neutralization (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04005-0 …), & there are also T-cells, non-neut Abs, etc. (5/n)Show this thread2 replies 4 retweets 38 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted SAMRC
Truly appreciate how quickly South African public health officials are sharing data. I’m seeing people conclude from this, though, that Omicron is mild. Maybe. Maybe not. Still too early. Only thing that seems assured is more breakthroughs and re-infections. Still need time.https://twitter.com/MRCza/status/1467138777881747456 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Disease progression takes time, serostatus of many is not always known, age cohorts have different contact patterns, founder effects are a thing, society isn’t mixed homogeneously… Need time to disentangle. I do hope it’s mild but let’s not talk ourselves into conclusions, yet.
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Replying to @zeynep
I respect your opinion. However, countries w/ higher # of cases, should know the progression of disease by now. UK, for example, has had cases for more than 7-8 days. In earlier variants (Delta included), the GPs could see the disease progress/worsen in 6-7 days in some % cases.
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Replying to @PankajGoel66 @zeynep
No, the lag is the same everywhere, week to symptoms, another week to ICU, another week to death, amount of cases is irrelevant. We will have a much clearer picture in a week or so.
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