From the sequence and what we know so far, maybe the one thing we can say is good level of antibody evasion is baked in—more breakthroughs. But that, by itself, doesn't tell us what it means for the pandemic. Remember Beta? B.1.351? Antibody evasion but little impact on pandemic.
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Disease progression takes time, serostatus of many is not always known, age cohorts have different contact patterns, founder effects are a thing, society isn’t mixed homogeneously… Need time to disentangle. I do hope it’s mild but let’s not talk ourselves into conclusions, yet.
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The IMF/international community should send billions of dollars to SA to recoup the tourism and travel losses created by scientists doing great work. It’s like the nation is punished for discovering the variant and warning the work
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Of course time is important and will yield more reliable information, but we don’t need time to make preliminary assessments based on what’s happening in South Africa — infections up, but severe symptoms in adults are not up.
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Bad take here. Time is needed, not rush to conclusions.
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To be clear though, if omicron has the same virulence as delta but results in a substantial increase in the number suspecptible, then result is that Covid will severly impact/kill far more people than with delta.
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Yes but it’s not really clear that it would dramatically increase the number susceptible
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