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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Roby Bhattacharyya‏ @roby_bhatt 6 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      This seems like as classic a case of Pascal's wager as I've ever seen in drug development. Theoretical arguments from smart people in either direction, no way to be sure… but Omicron moved the window for me on how I think about error tolerance of spike, at least.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Dec 2021
      Replying to @roby_bhatt

      I'm just trying to imagine a post-approval withdrawal because of this, and the damage it would do. Seems prudent to get some clarity, especially given the benefit itself is low to potentially non-existent. (I couldn't parse the trial data progression. Looks like noise at times).

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Roby Bhattacharyya‏ @roby_bhatt 6 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      Right. Though it's not easy to imagine how to get "clarity" on the viral mutagenesis issue: it'll happen (that's how the drug works!), but will it drive functional mutants? Is mutation rate limiting in evolution, or not? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ More clarity on efficacy would be welcome.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Dec 2021
      Replying to @roby_bhatt

      Yeah, clearly need more info on efficacy. On the other clarity part: I'm hoping someone will tell us! But the assumption has to be that many people will not complete the course as prescribed, will not quarantine, some will be immunocompromised (especially if it expands globally).

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @roby_bhatt

      With so many on the FDA panel raising this, specifically, as a significant enough concern, I'd like someone to tell us more about all this before approval, including how we'd get that kind of data/clarity.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Roby Bhattacharyya‏ @roby_bhatt 6 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      And while Omicron has affected my thinking on flexibility of ACE2 interface (bad for mutagenesis hypothesis), it's also prob compromised our best antivirals: mAb's. Therapies that mimic vaccines = not ideal. Orthogonal targets (protease, polymerase) = better. Nothing's easy.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Roby Bhattacharyya‏ @roby_bhatt 6 Dec 2021
      Replying to @roby_bhatt @zeynep

      I'm not sure who can "tell us" more, but I'd sure love to learn from them!

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Dec 2021
      Replying to @roby_bhatt

      Haha! The part here (from page 32 on) doesn't end with a conclusion. It just says uncertain! (There must be some monitoring mechanism for ongoing use, right?) https://www.fda.gov/media/154418/download …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Roby Bhattacharyya‏ @roby_bhatt 6 Dec 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      I mean, that conclusion sounds right to me. I'm not an expert in this subsubfield, but I know some folks who come close, and as far as I can see it's unknowable. And as you said, it's societal costs at play here, not individual - not sure we have a regulatory framework for that.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Roby Bhattacharyya‏ @roby_bhatt 6 Dec 2021
      Replying to @roby_bhatt @zeynep

      I don't say "unknowable" nihilistically - I think it's worth thinking really hard about and modeling and etc - I just think there's likely to be a limit to the certainty one can achieve on the question. And I don't know who even asks the questions. Right… back to grant writing.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Dec 2021
      Replying to @roby_bhatt

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      Heh. Speaking of which, last thing, I'm guessing you saw the Omicron/epistasis paper? Evolution, generating fascinating conversations since the first person asked wait how did the eye evolve then? 😀 Good luck with your grant(s)!https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1467629606505222161 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      It's all terrible but... This is legit fascinating for anyone with interest in evolutionary dynamics. Their argument: *On their own*, many Omicron mutations would likely be deleterious, but are adaptive when they *co-occur*... How you get rapid and substantial remodelling... https://twitter.com/alexvespi/status/1467622342251761668 …
      Show this thread
      9:20 AM - 6 Dec 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Roby Bhattacharyya
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Roby Bhattacharyya‏ @roby_bhatt 6 Dec 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Read the tweet thread, flagged to read post-grant!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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