Sharing a few threads on whether molnupiravir (new antiviral on the cusp of approval) risks generating new variants because the mutations it induces may, rarely but possibly, not kill the virus but generate viable variants instead. Many on the FDA panel who voted no raised this.https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1467611446053851145 …
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I think we can assume that there'll be some patient noncompliance (stopping early, skipping doses, erratic timing) as well as re-targeting (hoarded/left-over pills being shared). How does this affect this tail risk—not to the patient, but to society?https://twitter.com/Dereklowe/status/1467906065882927112 …
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To some asking: This mechanism doesn't apply to vaccines (vaccines aren't drugs—this is a drug specifically mutagenic to the virus), nor to Pfizer's antiviral (which targets enzymes, and is also not mutagenic to the virus). So concerns are only about this (or similar) drugs.
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Statistics 101. The chance that the observed low efficacy doesn't actually exist at all is 2.18%, according the p-value they reported.
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