While I'm completely prepared to believe a priori that VE may not be zeroed - does this particularly speak to that either way?
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Replying to @dylanhmorris @theosanderson
Say 120 people mixed evenly, ie equal exposure to index, & 2dose mRNA (PF) asymptomatic infxn protection v delta = 73% per ONS report 18th Oct P (>30/120 infxn) = 72.1% P (>40/120 infxn) = 7.4% P (>50/120 infxn) = 0.4% But mixing likely uneven+VE is not for single high exposure
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That tail!
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Devan Sinha Retweeted Gunhild Alvik Nyborg
Devan Sinha added,
Gunhild Alvik Nyborg @GANyborgNow some 80-90 of the 120 are PCR pos, 13 of these confirmed omicron, the rest waiting for sequencing results. Some of those infected w omicron were not at the party but present at the same restaurant that evening. Not looking good re transmissibility. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/omicron-outbreak-norway-christmas-party-is-biggest-outside-s-africa-authorities-2021-12-03/ …Show this thread1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
yeah here we go
2:44 PM - 3 Dec 2021
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