Folks, absolutely too early to conclude that Omicron is milder or more severe on average, or that vaccine efficacy will be preserved as is, or not—or even why exactly it's spreading. Just too early, and I would not pay any attention to conclusive sounding statements. Needs time.
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Truly appreciate how quickly South African public health officials are sharing data. I’m seeing people conclude from this, though, that Omicron is mild. Maybe. Maybe not. Still too early. Only thing that seems assured is more breakthroughs and re-infections. Still need time.https://twitter.com/MRCza/status/1467138777881747456 …
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Disease progression takes time, serostatus of many is not always known, age cohorts have different contact patterns, founder effects are a thing, society isn’t mixed homogeneously… Need time to disentangle. I do hope it’s mild but let’s not talk ourselves into conclusions, yet.
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The one thing that seems to be underestimated is the potential for protection v severity declining with v symptomatic. No doubt not as fast decline, but AZ has been estimated at <80% for admissions in the UK, and it's been a major problem in hospitals -- matching Israel pre-3rds.
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WHO has language that is easily misinterpreted. As when they said in January 2020 there was "no evidence of human-to-human transmission." No evidence seems to mean we don't have enough evidence to know something. It's terrible wording.
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