Folks, absolutely too early to conclude that Omicron is milder or more severe on average, or that vaccine efficacy will be preserved as is, or not—or even why exactly it's spreading. Just too early, and I would not pay any attention to conclusive sounding statements. Needs time.
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There's a timeline to the epistemology of this. There are some things we can make reasonable guesses about from the genome and soon-to-arrive lab work, but some key questions need to wait for clinical and epidemiological data. Both
@trvrb &@jbloom_lab had great threads recently.Show this thread -
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Truly appreciate how quickly South African public health officials are sharing data. I’m seeing people conclude from this, though, that Omicron is mild. Maybe. Maybe not. Still too early. Only thing that seems assured is more breakthroughs and re-infections. Still need time.https://twitter.com/MRCza/status/1467138777881747456 …
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Disease progression takes time, serostatus of many is not always known, age cohorts have different contact patterns, founder effects are a thing, society isn’t mixed homogeneously… Need time to disentangle. I do hope it’s mild but let’s not talk ourselves into conclusions, yet.
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Of course more data and time is needed. Hoping that BioNTech is right in the assessment that their vaccine will still be highly protective against severe outcomes. I’m getting a booster in a week anyway. Personally, I’m not about to waste energy worrying. Out of my control
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Also seems to be confusion about what different people mean when they say a variant is 'mild'. Fewer common symptoms? Fewer people develop severe disease? More asymptomatic cases (which nobody has claimed about Omicron AFAIK)?
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From analyzing the genome we can say that VE against omicron will take a hit vs VE against delta? Or just against some hypothetical virus that no longer exists?
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Also, what VE are we referring to? Someone vaccinated today, or someone vaccinated six months ago? VE compared to what?
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