Folks, absolutely too early to conclude that Omicron is milder or more severe on average, or that vaccine efficacy will be preserved as is, or not—or even why exactly it's spreading. Just too early, and I would not pay any attention to conclusive sounding statements. Needs time.
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I hope that's a misphrasing. Yeah, "there's no evidence": exactly, there's no strong evidence either way. Most cases of *all* variants, even Delta, are mild. The question is, on average, where does this fall, and why? We. Don't. and. Can't. Yet. Know.https://twitter.com/jjcalles/status/1466109069987622913 …
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I updated my NYT piece a tiny bit when it came out in print yesterday, but the same principle holds. We don't know. We *should* act defensively, till we know more, but in a targeted, smart way, not in a performative manner merely targeting passports.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1464994776365871105 …
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Personally, I'd be surprised if vaccine efficacy against breakthroughs didn't take a hit and there weren't more reinfections because of Omicron. But will those breakthroughs/re-infections be symptomatic? Mild? Severe? Will it spread widely? Don't know. Have to wait. No shortcuts.
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That's the only part we have some strong evidence for, from analyzing the genome. But do note: vaccine efficacy measures symptomatic breakthroughs, so it doesn't tell us about their efficacy against severe disease: that, too, will need time.https://twitter.com/damagecase1982/status/1466123483520409608 …
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There's a timeline to the epistemology of this. There are some things we can make reasonable guesses about from the genome and soon-to-arrive lab work, but some key questions need to wait for clinical and epidemiological data. Both
@trvrb &@jbloom_lab had great threads recently.Show this thread -
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Truly appreciate how quickly South African public health officials are sharing data. I’m seeing people conclude from this, though, that Omicron is mild. Maybe. Maybe not. Still too early. Only thing that seems assured is more breakthroughs and re-infections. Still need time.https://twitter.com/MRCza/status/1467138777881747456 …
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Disease progression takes time, serostatus of many is not always known, age cohorts have different contact patterns, founder effects are a thing, society isn’t mixed homogeneously… Need time to disentangle. I do hope it’s mild but let’s not talk ourselves into conclusions, yet.
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THANKS TO SOUTH AFRICA
@totodile3456Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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