From the sequence and what we know so far, maybe the one thing we can say is good level of antibody evasion is baked in—more breakthroughs. But that, by itself, doesn't tell us what it means for the pandemic. Remember Beta? B.1.351? Antibody evasion but little impact on pandemic.
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For all we know, it's spreading only because of antibody evasion, not higher transmissibility. Or not. Or that it's so different than the OG virus that it's not as good at replicating. Or maybe it's really severe for the unvaccinated. We don't know yet. WE. DON'T. KNOW.
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Thanks to South Africa, we learned about this threat very early. They will likely be the ones to tell us more. (Though I suspect they are too responsible to do so, who'd blame them if they held the information till we at least apologize for our response).https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1465334340255113218 …
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I hope that's a misphrasing. Yeah, "there's no evidence": exactly, there's no strong evidence either way. Most cases of *all* variants, even Delta, are mild. The question is, on average, where does this fall, and why? We. Don't. and. Can't. Yet. Know.https://twitter.com/jjcalles/status/1466109069987622913 …
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I updated my NYT piece a tiny bit when it came out in print yesterday, but the same principle holds. We don't know. We *should* act defensively, till we know more, but in a targeted, smart way, not in a performative manner merely targeting passports.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1464994776365871105 …
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Personally, I'd be surprised if vaccine efficacy against breakthroughs didn't take a hit and there weren't more reinfections because of Omicron. But will those breakthroughs/re-infections be symptomatic? Mild? Severe? Will it spread widely? Don't know. Have to wait. No shortcuts.
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That's the only part we have some strong evidence for, from analyzing the genome. But do note: vaccine efficacy measures symptomatic breakthroughs, so it doesn't tell us about their efficacy against severe disease: that, too, will need time.https://twitter.com/damagecase1982/status/1466123483520409608 …
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There's a timeline to the epistemology of this. There are some things we can make reasonable guesses about from the genome and soon-to-arrive lab work, but some key questions need to wait for clinical and epidemiological data. Both
@trvrb &@jbloom_lab had great threads recently.Show this thread -
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Truly appreciate how quickly South African public health officials are sharing data. I’m seeing people conclude from this, though, that Omicron is mild. Maybe. Maybe not. Still too early. Only thing that seems assured is more breakthroughs and re-infections. Still need time.https://twitter.com/MRCza/status/1467138777881747456 …
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Disease progression takes time, serostatus of many is not always known, age cohorts have different contact patterns, founder effects are a thing, society isn’t mixed homogeneously… Need time to disentangle. I do hope it’s mild but let’s not talk ourselves into conclusions, yet.
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