Another day, another weird datapoint for Omicronhttps://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1465126369608744968 …
Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org
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Dr Ed Retweeted Michael Mina
Another day, another weird datapoint for Omicronhttps://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1465126369608744968 …
Dr Ed added,
zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
If it’s re-infections/breakthroughs due to antibody evasion that’s driving the spread… Too early to conclude but fits so far.
https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1465077308511997957 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Agree, seems most likely. And not really manifesting yet in terms of hospitalizations, hope that remains meaningful too.
I guess this would also explain how you get pretty high test positivity rates in Gauteng; but case counts that are actually flat in the last few days? Previously infected/vaccinated with mild cases opting not to get tested?
Do we have any idea of what seropositivity is there? We know vaccination rates are relatively low.
Three studies in Gauteng suggest 20-40% seroprevalence, depending on the population and time period etc https://serotracker.com/en/Explore pic.twitter.com/hzzIDm9KpV
Looks like these data only go to Jan 2021? They had a subsequent Delta wave so I’d imagine it went much higher after rhat
It’s much higher. They do have good excess death tracking. But the sero estimate comes down to one’s IFR estimate. A random serosurvey in Gauteng right about now would be excellent. (Would save a lot more money than it cost).
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Christian Althaus
One estimate in this thread. (Has github so can play with the data).https://twitter.com/C_Althaus/status/1464922703786348546 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Obviously, that's great if vaccines/prior infections are still preventing more serious outcomes among reinfected (though I guess we'll need to wait). But I'd worry about the economic damage if people no longer trust vaccination to limits spread. In person conference, offices etc
Juli798686 Retweeted COVID Impact
Juli798686 added,
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