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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Dr Ed‏ @notdred 28 Nov 2021

      Dr Ed Retweeted Michael Mina

      Another day, another weird datapoint for Omicronhttps://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1465126369608744968 …

      Dr Ed added,

      Michael MinaVerified account @michaelmina_lab
      Monitoring wastewater for viral load estimates outbreak size In just a few weeks, in Pretoria S. Africa (north of Johannesburg) viral load detected in wastewater has reached similar levels as the peak of Delta This at least indicates that transmission may be remarkably swift pic.twitter.com/TxR7DxsOuA
      Show this thread
      9 replies 13 retweets 117 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 Nov 2021
      Replying to @notdred

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      If it’s re-infections/breakthroughs due to antibody evasion that’s driving the spread… Too early to conclude but fits so far. 🤷‍♀️https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1465077308511997957 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      OTOH, both immune evasion and intrinsic higher transmissibility contribute to higher Rt. For ex, if Omicron can evade antibodies and is reinfecting people, cases will go up but might be milder with cellular immunity (T&B) cells kicking in. Need time and data to sort it out.
      Show this thread
      3 replies 1 retweet 32 likes
    3. Dr Ed‏ @notdred 28 Nov 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      Agree, seems most likely. And not really manifesting yet in terms of hospitalizations, hope that remains meaningful too.

      4 replies 1 retweet 31 likes
    4. Arpit Gupta‏ @arpitrage 28 Nov 2021
      Replying to @notdred @zeynep

      I guess this would also explain how you get pretty high test positivity rates in Gauteng; but case counts that are actually flat in the last few days? Previously infected/vaccinated with mild cases opting not to get tested?

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Dr Ed‏ @notdred 28 Nov 2021
      Replying to @arpitrage @zeynep

      Or don’t even know they’re infected!

      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    6. Scott Imberman‏ @imbernomics 28 Nov 2021
      Replying to @notdred @arpitrage @zeynep

      Do we have any idea of what seropositivity is there? We know vaccination rates are relatively low.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Arpit Gupta‏ @arpitrage 28 Nov 2021
      Replying to @imbernomics @notdred @zeynep

      Three studies in Gauteng suggest 20-40% seroprevalence, depending on the population and time period etc https://serotracker.com/en/Explore pic.twitter.com/hzzIDm9KpV

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    8. Dr Ed‏ @notdred 28 Nov 2021
      Replying to @arpitrage @imbernomics @zeynep

      Looks like these data only go to Jan 2021? They had a subsequent Delta wave so I’d imagine it went much higher after rhat

      3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 Nov 2021
      Replying to @notdred @arpitrage @imbernomics

      It’s much higher. They do have good excess death tracking. But the sero estimate comes down to one’s IFR estimate. A random serosurvey in Gauteng right about now would be excellent. (Would save a lot more money than it cost).

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 Nov 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @notdred and

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Christian Althaus

      One estimate in this thread. (Has github so can play with the data).https://twitter.com/C_Althaus/status/1464922703786348546 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Christian AlthausVerified account @C_Althaus
      South Africa records an excess mortality of 230k during the pandemic, which corresponds to 0.39% of the overall population (https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality …). We earlier estimated the infection fatality ratio for the population of South Africa to be 0.35% (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-020-00649-w …). 9/15
      Show this thread
      6:50 PM - 28 Nov 2021
      • 4 Likes
      • Dr Ed Marianliz Scott Imberman Arpit Gupta
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Arpit Gupta‏ @arpitrage 28 Nov 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @notdred @imbernomics

          Obviously, that's great if vaccines/prior infections are still preventing more serious outcomes among reinfected (though I guess we'll need to wait). But I'd worry about the economic damage if people no longer trust vaccination to limits spread. In person conference, offices etc

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Juli798686‏ @juli_bg_bs 28 Nov 2021
          Replying to @arpitrage @zeynep and

          Juli798686 Retweeted COVID Impact

          https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1464348724621033477?s=20 …

          Juli798686 added,

          COVID Impact @CovidSerology
          The population of South Africa might be just 23% fully vaccinated but a large percent of the pop. have likely been exposed to SARS-COV-2. Back calculations from recorded mortality and non-random surveys before the delta wave (~43%) would suggest >60-70% exposed nationwide 1/n pic.twitter.com/WHwX1lPs8h
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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