I'd be careful not to overinterpret the following graph from @jburnmurdoch.
Yes, the fraction of B.1.1.529 is increasing faster. But I think that is that is largely due to different denominators.pic.twitter.com/NDhSqJpLlw
Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org
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I'd be careful not to overinterpret the following graph from @jburnmurdoch.
Yes, the fraction of B.1.1.529 is increasing faster. But I think that is that is largely due to different denominators.pic.twitter.com/NDhSqJpLlw
In the same thread, John provided this graph as well. There were far more cases of previous strains around when Alpha and Delta took off, so they had further to go, so to speak, to reach high prevalence.pic.twitter.com/guKN1uKz7C
The question at hand is why was Delta low before?
Cause it had already swept through?
Without a corresponding death rate?
Not sure what you mean by this. There were many deaths.
“Swept through” levels? Not sure that holds. I’m asking what was the remaining seronegative portion?
Perhaps very low, < 10%. Why else would cases have dropped so low?
Well that’s the question. Not sure we can assume the answer from known principles alone here. I mean, maybe but it doesn’t fit neatly so some assumption-independent data would be really useful.
As an example, in FL over 70% est ever infected and current Reff = 0.65. They haven’t started wearing N95s in FL.https://covidestim.org/us/FL
30% remaining seronegatives is huge with an R>6-8 virus.
FL also has 61% fully vaccinated.
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