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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 25 Nov 2021

      People are asking what I think about the B.1.1.529 variant that is rapidly increasing in frequency in South Africa. It certainly merits close monitoring. That said: I believe the hockey-stick graphs from yesterday are in error. We are nowhere near the delta peak prevalence.

      20 replies 458 retweets 1,660 likes
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    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 25 Nov 2021

      While some degree of immune escape is possible, and the presence of the E484K mutation is suggestive of change in that direction, immune escape alone cannot explain the rapid the increase in prevalence. If that's not some of founder effect, it must have higher transmissibility.

      6 replies 35 retweets 382 likes
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    3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 25 Nov 2021

      Given everything we know at this stage, I'd be very surprised if the current mRNA vaccines did not continue to offer strong protection against severe disease and death from B.1.1.529. I'm more concerned about it sweeping through areas that have not been able to acquire vaccines.

      54 replies 195 retweets 961 likes
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    4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 25 Nov 2021

      I'd be careful not to overinterpret the following graph from @jburnmurdoch. Yes, the fraction of B.1.1.529 is increasing faster. But I think that is that is largely due to different denominators.pic.twitter.com/NDhSqJpLlw

      15 replies 77 retweets 566 likes
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    5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 25 Nov 2021

      In the same thread, John provided this graph as well. There were far more cases of previous strains around when Alpha and Delta took off, so they had further to go, so to speak, to reach high prevalence.pic.twitter.com/guKN1uKz7C

      5 replies 81 retweets 540 likes
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    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 25 Nov 2021
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @HuffmanLabDU

      The question at hand is why was Delta low before?

      3 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
    7. Michael Glotzer‏ @Mglo 25 Nov 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @CT_Bergstrom @HuffmanLabDU

      Cause it had already swept through?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 25 Nov 2021
      Replying to @Mglo @CT_Bergstrom @HuffmanLabDU

      Without a corresponding death rate?

      4 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Adam Welz‏ @AdamWelz 25 Nov 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @Mglo and

      Not sure what you mean by this. There were many deaths.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 25 Nov 2021
      Replying to @AdamWelz @Mglo and

      “Swept through” levels? Not sure that holds. I’m asking what was the remaining seronegative portion?

      9:19 PM - 25 Nov 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Michael Glotzer‏ @Mglo 25 Nov 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @AdamWelz and

          Perhaps very low, < 10%. Why else would cases have dropped so low?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 25 Nov 2021
          Replying to @Mglo @AdamWelz and

          Well that’s the question. Not sure we can assume the answer from known principles alone here. I mean, maybe but it doesn’t fit neatly so some assumption-independent data would be really useful.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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