People are asking what I think about the B.1.1.529 variant that is rapidly increasing in frequency in South Africa. It certainly merits close monitoring. That said: I believe the hockey-stick graphs from yesterday are in error. We are nowhere near the delta peak prevalence.
“Swept through” levels? Not sure that holds. I’m asking what was the remaining seronegative portion?
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Perhaps very low, < 10%. Why else would cases have dropped so low?
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Well that’s the question. Not sure we can assume the answer from known principles alone here. I mean, maybe but it doesn’t fit neatly so some assumption-independent data would be really useful.
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