People are asking what I think about the B.1.1.529 variant that is rapidly increasing in frequency in South Africa. It certainly merits close monitoring. That said: I believe the hockey-stick graphs from yesterday are in error. We are nowhere near the delta peak prevalence.
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this thread (read entire thread) from
@Tuliodna contains pretty much all the currently available information + explanations:https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194 …
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In SA, >66% have been infected http://bit.ly/3p0D45b ; 24% fully vaxxed. Forget about Bergstrom's denominator, just look at actual Nu cases. With Delta, SA's Reff has been below 1.0 since late Aug. Nu cases are going vertical in 8 our of 9 SA provinces last 2 weeks - not a fluke
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