People are asking what I think about the B.1.1.529 variant that is rapidly increasing in frequency in South Africa. It certainly merits close monitoring. That said: I believe the hockey-stick graphs from yesterday are in error. We are nowhere near the delta peak prevalence.
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Dunno, but delta seems to spread until in runs out of possible hosts. Look at the low level of cases in FL now and other states that had huge waves. Actual cases >> detected cases.
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Here is a proper analysis by an actual epidemiologist that draws same conclusion on delta based on deaths and IFR and comes to same conclusionhttps://twitter.com/C_Althaus/status/1464922711755563014 …
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Not sure what you mean by this. There were many deaths.
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“Swept through” levels? Not sure that holds. I’m asking what was the remaining seronegative portion?
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the average age in South Africa is really low though, around 27....
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