People are asking what I think about the B.1.1.529 variant that is rapidly increasing in frequency in South Africa. It certainly merits close monitoring. That said: I believe the hockey-stick graphs from yesterday are in error. We are nowhere near the delta peak prevalence.
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Cause it had already swept through?
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Without a corresponding death rate?
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before what? Beta was dominant in South Africa for wave 2 (Dec 2020). Delta took longer to arrive but has been dominant almost exclusive strain for months now, including wave 3 (July 2021), now being replaced by new variant.
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What would you estimate as remaining seronegatives? (For any strain).
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Because it's summer.
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