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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Scott Gottlieb, MD‏Verified account @ScottGottliebMD 12 Nov 2021

      While Germany has high vax rate (67% fully vaxxed) it's concentrated among older individuals, and little coverage among kids. So, it has big pockets of low coverge. Germany has not authorized vax for under 11, and only authorized 12-17 in Aug when Delta first started to tick up

      22 replies 33 retweets 198 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Scott Gottlieb, MD‏Verified account @ScottGottliebMD 12 Nov 2021

      NY Times November 11, 2021: “Germany’s Fourth Covid Wave: ‘A Pandemic of the Unvaccinated’ - Germany once set an example for how to manage the coronavirus. Now, deep pockets of vaccine resistance are helping drive daily infections to new heights.”https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/11/world/europe/germany-covid-pandemic-unvaccinated-vaccines-fourth-wave.html?referringSource=articleShare …

      20 replies 29 retweets 160 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Scott Gottlieb, MD‏Verified account @ScottGottliebMD 12 Nov 2021

      In June Germany's scientific advisers recommended the vaccine should only be offered to children 12 to 15 with underlying health conditions. But in Aug, after Delta variant started spreading, the rollout was extended to all those over 12 years old.https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58516207 …

      4 replies 21 retweets 117 likes
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    4. Scott Gottlieb, MD‏Verified account @ScottGottliebMD 12 Nov 2021

      Germany also had less prior infection than U.S., and less total immunity in population. U.S. CDC estimates up to 80% of Americans have some immunity to Covid (either from vaccination, prior infection, or both). In the U.K. that figure may be 90%. In Germany that rate is lower.pic.twitter.com/ftLQKy497q

      5 replies 20 retweets 156 likes
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    5. Scott Gottlieb, MD‏Verified account @ScottGottliebMD 12 Nov 2021

      Germany hasn’t used testing as aggressively and as widely as the U.S., U.K. and some other countries to identify cases, get infected patients isolated and treated, and trace close contacts to help prevent further transmission.pic.twitter.com/9067hzUKm4

      8 replies 15 retweets 112 likes
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    6. Scott Gottlieb, MD‏Verified account @ScottGottliebMD 12 Nov 2021

      Earlier this fall, after months of offering free coronavirus antigen tests to all residents, Germany stopped subsidizing them for adults who chose not to get vaccinated.https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/10/world/europe/germany-covid-test.html …

      13 replies 18 retweets 124 likes
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    7. Scott Gottlieb, MD‏Verified account @ScottGottliebMD 12 Nov 2021

      Delta was late to rise in Germany in Aug and the bigger surge is more sudden and recent as Delta appears to have gotten into populated regions as weather cooled, perhaps people moved indoors. But the reproduction number appears to be slowing, a sign they (may) be starting to peakpic.twitter.com/npbVNY8N6Q

      4 replies 20 retweets 102 likes
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    8. Scott Gottlieb, MD‏Verified account @ScottGottliebMD 12 Nov 2021

      Germany's challenges are caution to world, Covid pandemic isn't over globally, won't be for long time. But U.S. is further along than many other countries, in part because we already suffered more spread, in part because we're making progress on vaccines, therapeutics, testing.

      6 replies 27 retweets 172 likes
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    9. Scott Gottlieb, MD‏Verified account @ScottGottliebMD 12 Nov 2021

      Germany has 33 cases/100,000/day. In U.S., the national avg is about 22. But US spread is highly regionalized, the south has largely had its wave, the current wave in plains and mountain states is receding, but cases are rising further north in New England and Great Lakes regionpic.twitter.com/KhhjHPIbfa

      13 replies 28 retweets 140 likes
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    10. Scott Gottlieb, MD‏Verified account @ScottGottliebMD 12 Nov 2021

      In U.S., we're much closer to end of delta wave then beginning. Through wider vaccination, oral anti-viral drugs, wider use of antibody drugs - along with our already high levels of population-wide immunity - we'll be entering a more endemic, yet still persistent phase of Covid.

      38 replies 43 retweets 310 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Nov 2021
      Replying to @ScottGottliebMD

      I have to say, Germany seems pretty straightforward to explain—as you just did. Delta is tragically good at finding the unvaccinated/uninfected, and even, say, 15% of unvaccinated adults would be a large number to work through especially in a place without a prior large outbreak.

      6:05 AM - 12 Nov 2021
      • 3 Retweets
      • 44 Likes
      • Rebel_Alliance is triple vaccinated! Navneet Verma Ed John Lee Getoutside U. Read Kraus selectiveecho
      8 replies 3 retweets 44 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Scott Gottlieb, MD‏Verified account @ScottGottliebMD 12 Nov 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          And the social and geographic areas of under-vaccination are concentrated in specific regions (especially the Eastern part of Germany) so that reality makes it even easier for delta to get into the pockets of vulnerability and cause the dense, concentrated outbreaks we're seeing

          3 replies 2 retweets 23 likes
        3. fKen Jackson‏ @OrwellAcademy 12 Nov 2021
          Replying to @ScottGottliebMD @zeynep

          Now do Michigan.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Ashwin Balagopal‏ @ashwin_id 12 Nov 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @ScottGottliebMD

          One question that's puzzled this ID doc/virologist is what proportion/size of the population would need to be unvaccinated to allow variants to fluorish, a question that involves mutation rates, transmission rates, etc, or is replication in 1 immunosuppressed host enough

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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