5-11 year olds will likely soon be eligible to get vaccinated. This is great news!
But some like @MonicaGandhi9 are championing an end to school masking once this happens.
The logic is that ending mask rules promotes vaccination.
But is that supported by any evidence? 1/
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Three, we have perfectly reasonable ways of thinking about and researching these questions within the conceptual toolkit of existing and actually appropriate fields like sociology or social-psychology. Why go to a field that has little to do with the question?
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Finally—sociology etc. are not immune to this—but most answers to such questions are not that exciting, but that is not the current academic or public incentive system. "Suprise!" is a more interesting answer, but should be assumed wrong unless really bolstered by future work.
End of conversation
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Tangentially, "second-order effects" is often used simply to shift blame. Anti-masks people blaming anti-mask violence on mask policies. Anti-shutdown people and blaming shutdowns for effects of uncontrolled spread. It's blaming fire hoses for water damage *and* fire damage.
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r/LockdownSkepticism has a "second-order effects" tag which is a constant stream of misattributing blame.
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Kahneman, sunstein and the like have become pretty popular. The broader topic is personal and policy risk/reward not just auctions. WHO apparently hired one as consult.
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But anyways, I think many people are influenced by them. And what happens is yes they learn that in *some cases* there are paradoxical second order effects, and then become biased to assume paradoxical affects are present in *all cases*.
End of conversation
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