Great thread with a "best guess" from @trvrb on where post-pandemic (endemic) burden of COVID may end up. Note: how the virus evolves is one factor, but so is the host (us!) immune response once it's no longer novel. Also: even smaller risk can, at scale, add substantial burden.https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1448297977005723653 …
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I agree. I think with some of the risk evaluation conditions and considerations being explored in this thread, polio vaccine would not pass muster either. We owe it to each other and those yet to be born to reduce prevalence.
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I think this is an important question and explains a lot of the inter-country variation in recommendations Some countries have a more medicalised model of childhood (e.g. US) and others active try to avoid this (UK, northern Europe) which tips this balance either way
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I'll add (as others have said) it's a shame fewer places are embracing more flexibility with the scheduling here Single dose options for adolescent males in particular gets vast majority of benefit and avoids majority of risk Also - we need dose reduction studies
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The amount of people ending up with long covid is the same even if vaccinated. Covid is an infection which damages/depletes the immune system, even in "mild" cases. You meet every reinfection weeker than previously. The burden of diabled kid/adults will increase endlessly.
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What if there were prior waves of a less noticeable variant of the virus that circulated prior to Fall 2019? This could have conferred some *temporary* immunity to some of the population, especially high contact demographics like children.
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Why no talking about the Novavax vaccine which to my understanding has FAR fewer side effects than any of the other three? Why no talk about the Merck pills that can greatly prevent hospitalization if started soon after a positive Covid test? Why R tests not quickly available?
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novavax seems to still be taking forever and a day. but yeah, the protein subunit technology has been in use for a while with Hep B and with pertussis.
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on myocarditis, I'm starting to wonder whether the chatter on "you know, we used to aspirate before IM injections to make sure we weren't hitting a blood vessel" is worth more followup. are there countries where that's still standard of care? are the numbers the same?
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