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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 14 Oct 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Trevor Bedford

      Great thread with a "best guess" from @trvrb on where post-pandemic (endemic) burden of COVID may end up. Note: how the virus evolves is one factor, but so is the host (us!) immune response once it's no longer novel. Also: even smaller risk can, at scale, add substantial burden.https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1448297977005723653 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb
      At endemicity, circulation does not necessarily translate to disease burden. Based on robust vaccine effectiveness against severe outcomes, my speculative guess would be that infection to fatality rate (IFR) drops 10-fold from its original ~0.6% to a flu-like ~0.06%. 14/17
      Show this thread
      16 replies 67 retweets 237 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 14 Oct 2021

      It need not evolve to be less virulent (selection pressure is transmission, not keeping host alive) so just as dangerous to the immunologically naive *but* those with previous infection/vaccination (thus no longer novel) can experience it as milder. These keep getting conflated.

      5 replies 7 retweets 57 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 14 Oct 2021

      Also true: even if we experience it much milder *on average*, adding one more seasonal HCoV will add to our disease burden and increase risks for especially for the elderly/immunocompromised. This is true for other viruses, too (RSV even OC43!) but now we have one additional one.

      2 replies 7 retweets 65 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 14 Oct 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Lofti Pixels

      Hence error in arguing merely from "much less likely to get severe disease" (true!) against vaccinating children (especially older ones). Yes, small risk, but adding one more! Also: primary infection with novel virus isn't same process as next exposure.https://twitter.com/loftipixels/status/1448367209680711687 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      2:19
      Lofti Pixels @loftipixels
      WATCH THIS: Joe Rogan annihilates @drsanjaygupta over vaccinating children. Sanjay seems utterly lost here; almost as if he's never been challenged on this outside of the imploding television medium of 30 sec scripted sound bites and groupthink circle jerks. #FreedomFlu pic.twitter.com/dUOyPN6JAi
      Show this thread
      13 replies 8 retweets 51 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 14 Oct 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted McKotchi

      I understand, but first, it is not zero. But most importantly, the comparison of vaccine risk isn't to zero risk, it's to risks from getting COVID while unvaccinated. Clearly, both are way smaller risks for children compared to adults, but neither is zero.https://twitter.com/McKotchi/status/1448636692282417160 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      McKotchi @McKotchi
      Replying to @zeynep
      I can only speak to the 5-11 group — but I think most parents (not the 1/3 that are going to rush out to get it) are worried about adverse events when the risk for healthy kids is close to zero.
      17 replies 13 retweets 119 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 14 Oct 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted atlantic triangle

      Yes but: studies show that almost all children get exposed to flu before seven or so (also to other human coronaviruses). Here, we are talking about exposure to a *novel* one, while older. Different process, lot more unknowns, and definitely not zero risk.https://twitter.com/atlantictriangl/status/1448639590898679810 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      atlantic triangle @atlantictriangl
      Replying to @zeynep
      This is the only way of framing this thing. It's the same as taking a flu shot. The kids are going to encounter these strains eventually. Do you take the risk of them experiencing it in the wild or do you introduce it first in a safe, controlled environment via a vaccine?
      6 replies 10 retweets 60 likes
      Show this thread
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 14 Oct 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      I'm not dismissing this: of course parents have such questions. However, post-viral myocarditis is also a thing (all viruses! not just this one!) and the correct comparison is the risk after vaccine vs COVID infection. That's what we should compare imo. https://twitter.com/BabeRuthsChris/status/1448640324046295044 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      16 replies 14 retweets 148 likes
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    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 14 Oct 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Arieh Kovler

      I don't see how a regular kid—or pretty much any adult in most places, avoids exposure to COVID within the next year or so at most—if not sooner. Yes, risks to kids is *really* low but always the same question: exposure while vaccinated or not vaccinated.https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1448642107737100289 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Arieh KovlerVerified account @ariehkovler
      Replying to @zeynep
      I think some of this is based on old thinking. What's the chance a kid will get Covid at some point in the next five years? In a suppression scenario, perhaps low. In an endemic scenario, probably very high?
      6 replies 19 retweets 133 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 14 Oct 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted You Should Have Voted For Jo

      These are good questions! I have my own preferences, but that's exactly the correct public discussion, imo. I think we should deeply engage parents with concerns, and address risks as vaccine vs infection with novel virus (something different!).https://twitter.com/colorblindk1d/status/1448644927785635840 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      You Should Have Voted For Jo @colorblindk1d
      Replying to @zeynep
      What is the risk ratio at which it is unethical to mandate vaccines? Is it 1 to 1? Say that COVID is 10x more likely to cause myocarditis than the vaccine. Is that enough to justify a recommendation? 100X? Where is that line?
      6:54 AM - 14 Oct 2021
      • 7 Retweets
      • 81 Likes
      • Penny Peters sammyzorba 📚 Sian Morton 😷 🌿 🕊 SlingshotPeriwinkle Alyson Metzger (((Lynn Gazis-Sax))) Thomas Turner Nicest Snog🔎 Chris Get-The-Vax-Intyre
      8 replies 7 retweets 81 likes
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. Steven Huwig‏ @huwigs 14 Oct 2021
          Replying to @BuckDharma2 @zeynep

          I agree. I think with some of the risk evaluation conditions and considerations being explored in this thread, polio vaccine would not pass muster either. We owe it to each other and those yet to be born to reduce prevalence.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Alasdair Munro‏Verified account @apsmunro 14 Oct 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          I think this is an important question and explains a lot of the inter-country variation in recommendations Some countries have a more medicalised model of childhood (e.g. US) and others active try to avoid this (UK, northern Europe) which tips this balance either way

          1 reply 2 retweets 11 likes
        3. Alasdair Munro‏Verified account @apsmunro 14 Oct 2021
          Replying to @apsmunro @zeynep

          I'll add (as others have said) it's a shame fewer places are embracing more flexibility with the scheduling here Single dose options for adolescent males in particular gets vast majority of benefit and avoids majority of risk Also - we need dose reduction studies

          2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Mikaela Olsen‏ @MikaelaOlsen19 14 Oct 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          The amount of people ending up with long covid is the same even if vaccinated. Covid is an infection which damages/depletes the immune system, even in "mild" cases. You meet every reinfection weeker than previously. The burden of diabled kid/adults will increase endlessly.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Laura Henderson‏ @SixandLaura 14 Oct 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          What if there were prior waves of a less noticeable variant of the virus that circulated prior to Fall 2019? This could have conferred some *temporary* immunity to some of the population, especially high contact demographics like children. #SARSCoV2_timeline

          1 reply 3 retweets 2 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. sammyzorba  📚‏ @sammyzorba 16 Oct 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Why no talking about the Novavax vaccine which to my understanding has FAR fewer side effects than any of the other three? Why no talk about the Merck pills that can greatly prevent hospitalization if started soon after a positive Covid test? Why R tests not quickly available?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. vvalkyri‏ @vvalkyri 16 Oct 2021
          Replying to @sammyzorba @zeynep

          novavax seems to still be taking forever and a day. but yeah, the protein subunit technology has been in use for a while with Hep B and with pertussis.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. vvalkyri‏ @vvalkyri 16 Oct 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          on myocarditis, I'm starting to wonder whether the chatter on "you know, we used to aspirate before IM injections to make sure we weren't hitting a blood vessel" is worth more followup. are there countries where that's still standard of care? are the numbers the same?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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