Great thread with a "best guess" from @trvrb on where post-pandemic (endemic) burden of COVID may end up. Note: how the virus evolves is one factor, but so is the host (us!) immune response once it's no longer novel. Also: even smaller risk can, at scale, add substantial burden.https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1448297977005723653 …
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It need not evolve to be less virulent (selection pressure is transmission, not keeping host alive) so just as dangerous to the immunologically naive *but* those with previous infection/vaccination (thus no longer novel) can experience it as milder. These keep getting conflated.
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Also true: even if we experience it much milder *on average*, adding one more seasonal HCoV will add to our disease burden and increase risks for especially for the elderly/immunocompromised. This is true for other viruses, too (RSV even OC43!) but now we have one additional one.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Lofti Pixels
Hence error in arguing merely from "much less likely to get severe disease" (true!) against vaccinating children (especially older ones). Yes, small risk, but adding one more! Also: primary infection with novel virus isn't same process as next exposure.https://twitter.com/loftipixels/status/1448367209680711687 …
zeynep tufekci added,
2:19Lofti Pixels @loftipixelsWATCH THIS: Joe Rogan annihilates@drsanjaygupta over vaccinating children. Sanjay seems utterly lost here; almost as if he's never been challenged on this outside of the imploding television medium of 30 sec scripted sound bites and groupthink circle jerks.#FreedomFlu pic.twitter.com/dUOyPN6JAiShow this thread13 replies 8 retweets 51 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted McKotchi
I understand, but first, it is not zero. But most importantly, the comparison of vaccine risk isn't to zero risk, it's to risks from getting COVID while unvaccinated. Clearly, both are way smaller risks for children compared to adults, but neither is zero.https://twitter.com/McKotchi/status/1448636692282417160 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted atlantic triangle
Yes but: studies show that almost all children get exposed to flu before seven or so (also to other human coronaviruses). Here, we are talking about exposure to a *novel* one, while older. Different process, lot more unknowns, and definitely not zero risk.https://twitter.com/atlantictriangl/status/1448639590898679810 …
zeynep tufekci added,
atlantic triangle @atlantictrianglReplying to @zeynepThis is the only way of framing this thing. It's the same as taking a flu shot. The kids are going to encounter these strains eventually. Do you take the risk of them experiencing it in the wild or do you introduce it first in a safe, controlled environment via a vaccine?6 replies 10 retweets 60 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted
I'm not dismissing this: of course parents have such questions. However, post-viral myocarditis is also a thing (all viruses! not just this one!) and the correct comparison is the risk after vaccine vs COVID infection. That's what we should compare imo. https://twitter.com/BabeRuthsChris/status/1448640324046295044 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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COVID itself does not have any lower risk of what you fear from the vaccine. I get it, the risk is really low either way (but goes up with age) but you are not choosing no risk.
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