Great thread with a "best guess" from @trvrb on where post-pandemic (endemic) burden of COVID may end up. Note: how the virus evolves is one factor, but so is the host (us!) immune response once it's no longer novel. Also: even smaller risk can, at scale, add substantial burden.https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1448297977005723653 …
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These are good questions! I have my own preferences, but that's exactly the correct public discussion, imo. I think we should deeply engage parents with concerns, and address risks as vaccine vs infection with novel virus (something different!).https://twitter.com/colorblindk1d/status/1448644927785635840 …
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Do you think any of these infection rates among children are lowered with schools requiring masks and kids being out of school During a lot of the large spike times?
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I was told by a prominent pediatric immunologist that he thinks the same kids who get (treatable) vaccine-related myocarditis are the same ones who would suffer the most damage from getting covid. So ironically they are the ones who need the vaccine the most.
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That's almost certainly not true, as there is an overwhelming male predominance in vaccine induced myocarditis (vast majority of which only after 2nd dose) which does not exist for covid infection in children
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I feel like many people used to be able to think they could somehow avoid getting Covid. Delta got rid of that fiction for just about everyone.
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It wasn't fiction before Delta, it was something we could shoot for w/high levels of containment & vaccination globally. But that wasn't a geopolitical reality, & variants emerged that shut down that hypothetical future..oh. I guess you're right, it was fiction because capitalism
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You can’t avoid exposure, but you can reduce the number of infections you have, and the dose you get infected by.
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So right - chances of unvax'd kids getting COVID in next 5 years seems near 100%, especially in poorly vax'd areas - here in Silicon Valley, quite safe now (very few school cases), but all parents I know will be vaxing at our school's already scheduled clinic next month.
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