Great thread with a "best guess" from @trvrb on where post-pandemic (endemic) burden of COVID may end up. Note: how the virus evolves is one factor, but so is the host (us!) immune response once it's no longer novel. Also: even smaller risk can, at scale, add substantial burden.https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1448297977005723653 …
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Yes but: studies show that almost all children get exposed to flu before seven or so (also to other human coronaviruses). Here, we are talking about exposure to a *novel* one, while older. Different process, lot more unknowns, and definitely not zero risk.https://twitter.com/atlantictriangl/status/1448639590898679810 …
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I'm not dismissing this: of course parents have such questions. However, post-viral myocarditis is also a thing (all viruses! not just this one!) and the correct comparison is the risk after vaccine vs COVID infection. That's what we should compare imo. https://twitter.com/BabeRuthsChris/status/1448640324046295044 …
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I don't see how a regular kid—or pretty much any adult in most places, avoids exposure to COVID within the next year or so at most—if not sooner. Yes, risks to kids is *really* low but always the same question: exposure while vaccinated or not vaccinated.https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1448642107737100289 …
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These are good questions! I have my own preferences, but that's exactly the correct public discussion, imo. I think we should deeply engage parents with concerns, and address risks as vaccine vs infection with novel virus (something different!).https://twitter.com/colorblindk1d/status/1448644927785635840 …
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Also if you have multiple children and one get sick, his siblings may not all get sick but they may miss THREE WEEKS OF SCHOOL.
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This is the only way of framing this thing. It's the same as taking a flu shot. The kids are going to encounter these strains eventually. Do you take the risk of them experiencing it in the wild or do you introduce it first in a safe, controlled environment via a vaccine?
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Okay, so the next question is: what is safer? The data show a generally low risk of severe disease with COVID infection. Ok, fine. But there is a much lower risk of severe disease with a COVID vaccine. It seems like a pretty easy choice.
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I feel like it’s strange the discussion centers so much on risk to children given risk of breakthroughs to more vulnerable parents/grandparents—figure my toddler would come through ok but would happily feed his snot to my 70+ parents—would like him vaxxed bc of that
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The larger risk is kids catching it and passing it on.
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I think some of this is based on old thinking. What's the chance a kid will get Covid at some point in the next five years? In a suppression scenario, perhaps low. In an endemic scenario, probably very high?
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