Great thread with a "best guess" from @trvrb on where post-pandemic (endemic) burden of COVID may end up. Note: how the virus evolves is one factor, but so is the host (us!) immune response once it's no longer novel. Also: even smaller risk can, at scale, add substantial burden.https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1448297977005723653 …
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It need not evolve to be less virulent (selection pressure is transmission, not keeping host alive) so just as dangerous to the immunologically naive *but* those with previous infection/vaccination (thus no longer novel) can experience it as milder. These keep getting conflated.
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Also true: even if we experience it much milder *on average*, adding one more seasonal HCoV will add to our disease burden and increase risks for especially for the elderly/immunocompromised. This is true for other viruses, too (RSV even OC43!) but now we have one additional one.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Lofti Pixels
Hence error in arguing merely from "much less likely to get severe disease" (true!) against vaccinating children (especially older ones). Yes, small risk, but adding one more! Also: primary infection with novel virus isn't same process as next exposure.https://twitter.com/loftipixels/status/1448367209680711687 …
zeynep tufekci added,
2:19Lofti Pixels @loftipixelsWATCH THIS: Joe Rogan annihilates@drsanjaygupta over vaccinating children. Sanjay seems utterly lost here; almost as if he's never been challenged on this outside of the imploding television medium of 30 sec scripted sound bites and groupthink circle jerks.#FreedomFlu pic.twitter.com/dUOyPN6JAiShow this thread13 replies 8 retweets 51 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @zeynep
This is why people like him need to stop entertaining his dangerous crap by going on his show.
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I disagree. That's true in some cases but in this one, he doesn't lose his audience once you boycott him.
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