Great thread with a "best guess" from @trvrb on where post-pandemic (endemic) burden of COVID may end up. Note: how the virus evolves is one factor, but so is the host (us!) immune response once it's no longer novel. Also: even smaller risk can, at scale, add substantial burden.https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1448297977005723653 …
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I understand, but first, it is not zero. But most importantly, the comparison of vaccine risk isn't to zero risk, it's to risks from getting COVID while unvaccinated. Clearly, both are way smaller risks for children compared to adults, but neither is zero.https://twitter.com/McKotchi/status/1448636692282417160 …
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Yes but: studies show that almost all children get exposed to flu before seven or so (also to other human coronaviruses). Here, we are talking about exposure to a *novel* one, while older. Different process, lot more unknowns, and definitely not zero risk.https://twitter.com/atlantictriangl/status/1448639590898679810 …
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I'm not dismissing this: of course parents have such questions. However, post-viral myocarditis is also a thing (all viruses! not just this one!) and the correct comparison is the risk after vaccine vs COVID infection. That's what we should compare imo. https://twitter.com/BabeRuthsChris/status/1448640324046295044 …
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I don't see how a regular kid—or pretty much any adult in most places, avoids exposure to COVID within the next year or so at most—if not sooner. Yes, risks to kids is *really* low but always the same question: exposure while vaccinated or not vaccinated.https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1448642107737100289 …
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These are good questions! I have my own preferences, but that's exactly the correct public discussion, imo. I think we should deeply engage parents with concerns, and address risks as vaccine vs infection with novel virus (something different!).https://twitter.com/colorblindk1d/status/1448644927785635840 …
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End of conversation
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The thing I didn’t quite understand from the Bedford thread was the role boosters would play in endemicity. Given how much better Covid vaccines have been than flu vaccines it seems like we could reduce burden substantially more in endemicity with annual boosters
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The real error here is failing to identify, by
@drsanjaygupta , the role of community transmission in public health. We recommend vaccinating children on the basis of risks and benefits to them, and on the basis of risks and benefits to the community. He left out the community.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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I don’t really have an opinion on vaccinated young children, but I think he was making the point below. If most vaxxed adults shouldn’t worry about breakthroughs, why should parents worry about unvaxxed children when the risk is even lower?https://twitter.com/sea_twin/status/1448502093514362880 …
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As
@zeynep notes, nearly all kids will be exposed to COVID, while breakthrough vax'd cases seem very rare - not even spreading inside families I know where one member got breakthrough. Risk during COVID for kids may be low, but they'll all get it, while seems vax'd won't. - Show replies
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