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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @nogenderid @lisa_iannattone and

      Check the numbers. Of the initial 75,000+, there were 4094 hospitalizations. That's a 5.5% hospitalization rate, yikes. Same group then went through an intense surge, no vaccine, and had 29 hospitalizations—likely not even all due to COVID but let's say all were. That's 0.039%.pic.twitter.com/msLT4qZooN

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Nomadic Quantum  🇨🇦  😷 💉 🦕‏ @nogenderid 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone and

      Hi, you're not addressing my point which is that it is known that immunity wanes (and as more people get infected) reinfection will become more likely. The conditional prob of being hospitalized given it's a reinfection appears higher than if it is an original infection.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @nogenderid @lisa_iannattone and

      To make that claim: *any* reinfection is more likely to turn into hospitalization compared with initial infection, you'd need to test the whole sample of 75,000: to get the correct denominator. That's not what the paper does, it's a conditional probability paper.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @nogenderid and

      As the paper explains, it necessarily overcounts the hospitalized (who all get tested) and misses all the mild/asymptomatic reinfections. What you want to look at is percent hospitalized after vaccine or prior infection, and compare that to before/without vaccine/infection.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @nogenderid and

      IMO the 29 hospitalized out of 75,000, and likely not all 29 have to do with COVID, is a fairly low number and maybe got worse with Delta, but now we also have vaccines! If that number holds up, really encouraging esp with boosters for high-risk.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Nancy Delagrave | Covid-Stop‏ @RougeMatisse 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @nogenderid and

      Delta was not around as they have followed patients only though 31st January 2021. So some of the subjects had only 3 months of exposition and likely when their neutralizing antibodies were still high. I feel like you are seeing this study through the prism of your hypotheses.pic.twitter.com/UBZd33fH1W

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. Nancy Delagrave | Covid-Stop‏ @RougeMatisse 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @RougeMatisse @zeynep and

      This study shows that under endemic conditions, we would likely get reinfected by SRAS-CoV-2 between 3 months and 5,1 years after peak antibody which is much more often than other endemic coronaviruses. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00219-6/fulltext …pic.twitter.com/wYtymxlljc

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Nancy Delagrave | Covid-Stop‏ @RougeMatisse 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @RougeMatisse @zeynep and

      This is a small cohort of genome sequenced reinfections. "Overall, 68.8% (11/16) had similar severity; 18.8% (3/16) had worse symptoms; and 12.5% (2/16) had milder symptoms with the second episode." I don't see cause for optimism.https://jim.bmj.com/content/69/6/1253 …

      1 reply 2 retweets 10 likes
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @RougeMatisse @nogenderid and

      So the paper you just linked to search *all* the literature and found a grand total of ... 17 genetically-confirmed re-infections. And you'd like to base your assumptions about severity of re-infections on those 17 cases in a pandemic affecting billions? (One can only wish).

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @RougeMatisse and

      As for Delta, agree! I said in tweet you replied that Delta made things worse. No doubt. I know the Lancet paper: it is yet an estimate, and not for vaccination. With clinical outcomes, the test is in the pudding. Are there hospitals full of re-infected? That would be alarming.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @RougeMatisse and

      The virus is circulating in multiple countries. People who have been infected and/or vaccinated are getting exposed and some re-infected/breakthroughs. Re-infections getting more severe would result in a wave worse than anything before: unvaccinated plus more severe re-infected.

      1:15 PM - 5 Oct 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • alfonzo Dr Ed
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nancy Delagrave | Covid-Stop‏ @RougeMatisse 5 Oct 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @nogenderid and

          I don't think that reinfection in general will be likely more severe. It depends of too many parameters (inhaled infectious dose, neutralizing antibodies and memory B cells). I believe it is too soon to tell either way but that we should worry about long term sequelae of Covid.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Dr. Lisa Iannattone‏ @lisa_iannattone 5 Oct 2021
          Replying to @RougeMatisse @zeynep and

          I agree. The uncertainty is the part that’s not being communicated honestly to the public. We’ve never tried to coexist with a pandemic SARS virus before. No one knows whether it’ll be fine but many seem happy to confidently offer that reassurance anyway.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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