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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone and

      Hence excellent news, and great paper. Looking up conditional probability (sometimes called selecting on the dependent variable) would help clarify the misunderstanding, though the paper does explain the findings—assuming the audience understands conditional probability. Cheers!

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone and

      Sorry, did not attach the right screenshot. Here you go! Green is the re-infections, red is the initial infections. You can see how rare re-infections that reach any level of concern are (even testing). Just the raw numbers speak for themselves. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1445421564011372547 …pic.twitter.com/2XeOX4Kla0

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    3. Dr. Lisa Iannattone‏ @lisa_iannattone 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @nogenderid and

      Your messaging is inconsistent. On one hand you reassure ppl that we’ll catch covid, likely many times, and it’s fine bc the danger is the novelty. But with data showing covid reinfections are dangerous, the message shifts to it being okay bc people are unlikely to catch it again

      1 reply 2 retweets 11 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone @nogenderid and

      The obvious point, that has been highlighted many times, is that reinfections are a bigger threat especially to elderly (immunosenescence) and the immunocompromised or otherwise high-risk. For most people, obviously, they are less severe or asymptomatic—that's how vaccines work.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone and

      The vaccinated and/or previously-infected do not face the same severity risk as the immunologically naive, which is pretty basic (again, how vaccines work), but obviously, less often, severe re-infections and breakthroughs occur—and *again* disproportionately in the high-risk.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone and

      Hence we should have extra precautions especially around vulnerable populations: vaccine mandates around them (like nursing homes), frequent testing, lower virus circulation. Immunity is protective but not absolute immortality, obviously. Cheers!

      3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. Nomadic Quantum  🇨🇦  😷 💉 🦕‏ @nogenderid 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone and

      Everyone's immunity to #covid19 will wane over time after 1st infection. Then their chances of being hospitalized go up rather than down on subsequent infections, if the data in this paper hold up to subsequent studies. Do you disagree with that statement? Thank you for engaging.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @nogenderid @lisa_iannattone and

      Check the numbers. Of the initial 75,000+, there were 4094 hospitalizations. That's a 5.5% hospitalization rate, yikes. Same group then went through an intense surge, no vaccine, and had 29 hospitalizations—likely not even all due to COVID but let's say all were. That's 0.039%.pic.twitter.com/msLT4qZooN

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Nomadic Quantum  🇨🇦  😷 💉 🦕‏ @nogenderid 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone and

      Hi, you're not addressing my point which is that it is known that immunity wanes (and as more people get infected) reinfection will become more likely. The conditional prob of being hospitalized given it's a reinfection appears higher than if it is an original infection.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @nogenderid @lisa_iannattone and

      To make that claim: *any* reinfection is more likely to turn into hospitalization compared with initial infection, you'd need to test the whole sample of 75,000: to get the correct denominator. That's not what the paper does, it's a conditional probability paper.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @nogenderid and

      As the paper explains, it necessarily overcounts the hospitalized (who all get tested) and misses all the mild/asymptomatic reinfections. What you want to look at is percent hospitalized after vaccine or prior infection, and compare that to before/without vaccine/infection.

      12:13 PM - 5 Oct 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • ד״ר אבשלום כרמל ומיסטר הייד. ortho hand surgeon alfonzo
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @nogenderid and

          IMO the 29 hospitalized out of 75,000, and likely not all 29 have to do with COVID, is a fairly low number and maybe got worse with Delta, but now we also have vaccines! If that number holds up, really encouraging esp with boosters for high-risk.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Nancy Delagrave | Covid-Stop‏ @RougeMatisse 5 Oct 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @nogenderid and

          Delta was not around as they have followed patients only though 31st January 2021. So some of the subjects had only 3 months of exposition and likely when their neutralizing antibodies were still high. I feel like you are seeing this study through the prism of your hypotheses.pic.twitter.com/UBZd33fH1W

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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