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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @nogenderid and

      Vaccines work on the same principle! However, just like here, those who get sick/die after vaccine breakthrough are more likely to be older or immunocompromised! (Conditional probability again!) Hence important to vaccinate many, so this small group is better protected. Cheers!

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    2. Dr. Lisa Iannattone‏ @lisa_iannattone 4 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @nogenderid and

      The study doesn’t say that. The only detail it provides is that hospitalisation at reinfection was more common for those hospitalized at initial infection. But 29/36 hospitalisations had not been hospitalized the first time. They don’t say the hosp were older or immunosupp.pic.twitter.com/kMSoy4Gklw

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone @nogenderid and

      Not only does it actually say that, you can see the tables yourself. PLUS, they were able to find a very tiny number of re-hospitalizations (29 in their 75,000+ sample) by also checking people who were hospitalized anyway—not even necessarily for COVID. Read the paper!pic.twitter.com/cWQ0jauCXs

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone and

      They combed records of 74,196 infected people. Found *only* 315 re-infected. In the first run, 4049 hospitalizations. Second round: only 29, and they don't even know if for COVID. Green is initial encounter, when the virus is novel. Red, same 75K people, virus no longer novel.pic.twitter.com/IkZwUuAXs6

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone and

      So, again the 29 re-hospitalized out of the mere 315 re-infections is slightly proportionally larger (29/315=9.2%) than 4094 hospitalized out of 74,196 initial infections (5.4%). As they say, the tiny group susceptible to reinfection is proportionally more immunocompromised!

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone and

      This is how conditional probability works, also for vaccines: if you look at severe outcomes for vaccinated people, they are pretty uncommon (as is reinfection as this paper states!) but when they do occur, more likely to be immunocompromised or otherwise higher-risk.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone and

      PLUS, they explain they are missing all the mild/asymptomatic re-infections (because not tested) and even the 29 (compared to initial 4094) just happen to be in the hospital, they can't even say it's a COVID hospitalization but even assuming they all were, it's super uncommon!

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone and

      Hence excellent news, and great paper. Looking up conditional probability (sometimes called selecting on the dependent variable) would help clarify the misunderstanding, though the paper does explain the findings—assuming the audience understands conditional probability. Cheers!

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone and

      Sorry, did not attach the right screenshot. Here you go! Green is the re-infections, red is the initial infections. You can see how rare re-infections that reach any level of concern are (even testing). Just the raw numbers speak for themselves. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1445421564011372547 …pic.twitter.com/2XeOX4Kla0

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    10. Dr. Lisa Iannattone‏ @lisa_iannattone 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @nogenderid and

      Your messaging is inconsistent. On one hand you reassure ppl that we’ll catch covid, likely many times, and it’s fine bc the danger is the novelty. But with data showing covid reinfections are dangerous, the message shifts to it being okay bc people are unlikely to catch it again

      1 reply 2 retweets 11 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
      Replying to @lisa_iannattone @nogenderid and

      The obvious point, that has been highlighted many times, is that reinfections are a bigger threat especially to elderly (immunosenescence) and the immunocompromised or otherwise high-risk. For most people, obviously, they are less severe or asymptomatic—that's how vaccines work.

      9:26 AM - 5 Oct 2021
      • 4 Likes
      • alfonzo Ed Brown BarbraLou Dr Ed
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone and

          The vaccinated and/or previously-infected do not face the same severity risk as the immunologically naive, which is pretty basic (again, how vaccines work), but obviously, less often, severe re-infections and breakthroughs occur—and *again* disproportionately in the high-risk.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @lisa_iannattone and

          Hence we should have extra precautions especially around vulnerable populations: vaccine mandates around them (like nursing homes), frequent testing, lower virus circulation. Immunity is protective but not absolute immortality, obviously. Cheers!

          3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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