what's... your point exactly?https://twitter.com/ArisKatzourakis/status/1445038725529022475 …
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Replying to @wanderer_jasnah
"It's not going to become a common cold" I imagine
3 replies 0 retweets 10 likes -
Replying to @notdred @wanderer_jasnah
zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
This the confusion. Viruses don't necessarily evolve towards less virulence, but, of course, as people get vaccinated/infected the disease is experienced as less severe, on average, next time: how many pandemics end. People confuse the two mechanisms.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1445046912013459457 …
zeynep tufekci added,
zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynepReplying to @zeynep @jbloom_lab and 2 othersAlso some of the issue seems to be some think viruses always evolve towards less virulence—not necessarily, selection pressure is on transmission—but then others conflate that correction with lessening severity due to immune memory (true regardless of host or virus evolution).8 replies 2 retweets 17 likes -
Nomadic Quantum 🇨🇦 😷 💉 🦕 Retweeted Anthony J Leonardi, PhD, MS
It appears that reinfection with cov2 is statistically experienced as more severe rather than less severe, i.e. MORE likely to result in hospitalization. There are likely many ways for pandemics to end.
#covid19https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1445187429250572291 …Nomadic Quantum 🇨🇦 😷 💉 🦕 added,
Anthony J Leonardi, PhD, MS @fitterhappierAJIn a stark counter to those who claim reinfections will be milder and novelty is the determinant of severity, this study finds hospitalization is more common for cases of suspected reinfection than in primary infections h/t@lisa_iannattone https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(21)00422-5/fulltext … pic.twitter.com/gCNonYI3VWShow this thread3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes -
Or, you can actually read the paper! It's excellent news. They found a grand total of *315* reinfections out of 75,000+—almost certainly more occurred but didn't have any symptoms so not even tested, thus different denominator. The 315 were older & more likely immunocompromised.
2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @nogenderid and
In a cohort of 75K positives, a tiny, tiny number (315) get reinfected despite a big wave, so no doubt exposure. As the paper notes, reinfections that have symptoms are vanishingly *rare* exactly because of immune memory: no longer novel. That's how vaccines work, too!
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @nogenderid and
Good to see more studies showing how rare reinfection are: the virus doesn't go away, but our immune system is *much* better at fighting it after it is no longer novel. (Again, why vaccines work!) Have a great day, and thank you for bringing that paper to my attention.
1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @nogenderid and
The issue I have with the notion that the virus doesn’t become less virulent, but we satisfactorily develop collective immunity to achieve the same outcome, is that it’s still as virulent in those who don’t mount an immune response to a vaccine or infection acquired immunity.
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
The concern is very justified since especially the elderly and immunocompromised remain at risk because of what you point out: their immune system isn't functioning well despite exposure. Keeping circulation low, vaccinating everyone else, antivirals, public health measures...
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