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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Sep 2021

      Do people know that the 1890 pandemic was likely caused by another coronavirus, OC43 (that was then novel?) Nowadays, no longer novel, it is one of the causes of the common cold. We're obviously not living in the OC43 pandemic since, and we won't live in a COVID pandemic forever.

      103 replies 542 retweets 2,757 likes
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    2. Bloom Lab‏ @jbloom_lab 27 Sep 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      I think evidence for 1889-1890 pandemic being caused by OC43 is pretty dubious. There is good seroarchaeology evidence (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2557748/ …) that there was a flu pandemic (probably H3N8) in 1889-1890. In addition, ... (1/3)

      4 replies 15 retweets 130 likes
    3. Bloom Lab‏ @jbloom_lab 27 Sep 2021
      Replying to @jbloom_lab @zeynep

      ... after OC43 / 1889-90 idea started to gain popular press, I went back & read some historical accounts of 1889-90 pandemic (eg, https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1279164530 … & https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/3337889379 …). Drs were already quite familiar with influenza then, and they all thought 1889-90 was flu. (2/3)

      3 replies 5 retweets 56 likes
    4. Bloom Lab‏ @jbloom_lab 27 Sep 2021
      Replying to @jbloom_lab @zeynep

      As far as I can tell, argument for 1889-90 being OC43 comes from one study that briefly does a molecular clock analysis that put divergence of OC43 and BCoV in late 1800s, and then popular media ran with it without much examination. (3/3)

      6 replies 8 retweets 69 likes
    5. Nafnlaus‏ @enn_nafnlaus 4 Oct 2021
      Replying to @jbloom_lab @zeynep

      My take as well. I read the articles arguing in support of OC43 and it's really weak. The evidence for influenza is much stronger.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Jonathan Mesiano-Crookston /Denial Is Bad Strategy‏ @jmcrookston 4 Oct 2021
      Replying to @enn_nafnlaus @jbloom_lab @zeynep

      Thank you both. My thoughts exactly. And even if the OC43 timing worked, to say it caused the pandemic is a wild guess.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Oct 2021
      Replying to @jmcrookston @enn_nafnlaus @jbloom_lab

      It's definitely more than a wild guess imo, but yes, as Jesse etc. point out, there is substantive disagreement, as well as suspicion over another HCoV. There will surely be more work. That said, point remains: pandemics can end with depletion of immunologically naive population.

      7:14 AM - 4 Oct 2021
      • 5 Likes
      • Anna Ammar alibaba Jeff, God of Biscuits Part II Bloom Lab
      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        2. Jonathan Mesiano-Crookston /Denial Is Bad Strategy‏ @jmcrookston 4 Oct 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @enn_nafnlaus @jbloom_lab

          And I disagree, and explained why, but I've already said my piece. I do not know enough to comment on depletion of naive population. We will assuredly reach some level. Whether we can live with the level is another matter entirely.

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        3. Nafnlaus‏ @enn_nafnlaus 4 Oct 2021
          Replying to @jmcrookston @zeynep @jbloom_lab

          Wow. So here's what I got for disagreeing with her.pic.twitter.com/5F5VceCodt

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
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        2. Bloom Lab‏ @jbloom_lab 4 Oct 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @jmcrookston @enn_nafnlaus

          I agree, basically. Isn't clear OC43 caused pandemic in 1889 & can't assume #SARSCoV2 will become common cold. Hopefully, but some endemic viruses (eg flu) remain serious. But pandemic will become less-severe endemic as more immunity. BTW, here's flu mortality in 1918 & after:pic.twitter.com/e4fG9XMllh

          3 replies 2 retweets 14 likes
        3. Bloom Lab‏ @jbloom_lab 4 Oct 2021
          Replying to @jbloom_lab @zeynep and

          Flu mortality stats from here (https://www.jstor.org/stable/30114117 ). Also has stats for H2N2 and H3N2 in pandemic and subsequent seasons, which were never nearly as deadly as 1918.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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